Stock blog: defensive money flows return

Selling pressure today was not particularly large, but weak buying support pushed stock prices down sharply. Even without external uncertainties, the risk of a correction remains as the accumulation process is not yet complete.

Market breadth and price declines

The VN-Index edged down modestly, while many individual stocks fell more deeply. The breadth ratio was about 0.33 to 1, with more than 150 stocks down 1% or more. Among them were many high-liquidity names, and over 70 stocks fell more than 2%.

Liquidity across both exchanges for the day was below 20 trillion VND, a very low level. In addition to broad declines, nearly 59% of stocks finished at their Low or had bids below the lowest price by one tick, a pattern attributed to passive buying.

Rebalancing view and key risks

In an optimistic interpretation, the low liquidity level does not necessarily signal excessive worry; it may reflect a “rebalancing” effect after investors became overly enthusiastic on April 1. The article also notes that overexpanding portfolios while the motivation to break out of the consolidation zone remains weak can increase risk.

In a plausible scenario where the market retraces, the room for adjustment is described as fairly wide, potentially creating opportunities to buy back. The main variable highlighted is whether conflicts escalate significantly in the coming days, with the risk of retaliation described as difficult to predict. The article adds that domestic information may be overshadowed by this volatility, and that even if the market does not react negatively, it is unlikely to rise sharply while global markets are down.

Derivatives and VN30 levels

The article states that the derivatives market today was relatively easy to trade, with the VN30 index’s trading range broad. It highlights variables including VIC and VHM. Early in the day, when VN30 modestly surpassed 1865.xx and formed two peaks around 1868, the movement was attributed to these “pillars.” For the rest of the session, Short entries reportedly had favorable basis and stop-loss levels were met.

In the afternoon, Long cover accelerated the decline, and the basis turned to a discount. The widest opening for VN30’s range—from 1848.xx to 1835.xx—moved smoothly. The article also notes that the base is difficult to trade, momentum trades can get stuck, conflicting information can widen oscillations, and low liquidity can make leaders more influential. It concludes that derivatives are a lower-risk channel.

VN30 close and next-session levels

VN30 closed the week at 1837.43.

Nearest resistance levels for the next session: 1850; 1858; 1865; 1878; 1887; 1892.

Support levels: 1835; 1816; 1802; 1786; 1778; 1768.

Time window and market test

The article describes “the sharp blow in the next 2–3 weeks” as a test for the market, likely representing the peak of the conflict based on disclosures to date. It adds that if tensions ease—regardless of outcomes—the market would benefit.

It also states that currently there is no major supply pressure, with trading mainly driven by “meat money,” and that short-term momentum trading is difficult. In a scenario where conflict escalates to a peak while the market remains stable, the chance of forming a brighter bottom is described as higher.