Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 as data signals renewed buying pressure from major US-based investors, raising hopes that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could soon reclaim the $65,000 level.
According to a July 10 post by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s price rise in July was driven by large US-based investors (whales). The Coinbase Premium, the price difference between the BTCUSDT pair on Coinbase and Binance, has shown early signs of renewed buying momentum. The Coinbase Premium index for both BTC and ETH remains negative, but both have moved up from local lows, with Burak Kesmeci noting that Bitcoin has regained the 14-day simple moving average (SMA14), helping explain Bitcoin’s move from about $58,000 to $64,000 and Ethereum’s rise from about $1,500 to $1,750.
Kesmeci pointed out that the 14-day SMA of the Coinbase Premium index, which reflects demand from large and retail traders on the largest US crypto exchange, has been negative for most of 2026. The index is currently around -0.08, and the last time it turned positive on a daily timeframe was more than two months ago. While the current signal acts as a catalyst for a near-term recovery, a lasting regime change would require the index to move above zero.
Institutional demand is drawing attention. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for the first time after a record outflow of $2.7 billion. Data from Farside Investors in the UK shows investor sentiment remains sensitive to even small price movements. Bitcoin Suisse, a crypto financial services provider, has incorporated ETF inflow data as a signal that sentiment in the current market has shifted. In a July 10 thread on X, they noted eight weeks of ETF outflows and Bitcoin at a 21-month low, with indications that something changed in the week.
The data point to a potential near-term recovery in Bitcoin’s price, with renewed buying interest from US-based investors acting as a catalyst. However, analysts caution that a sustained uptrend would require clearer positive signals in the Coinbase Premium index and continued ETF inflows.
Burak Kesmeci notes that while the current move could signal a near-term recovery, a true regime change would require the Coinbase Premium index to move above zero. He emphasizes that US-based large-investor activity remains a key data point for regime shifts. Separately, Bitcoin Suisse highlights ETF inflow data as an indicator that sentiment in the market has shifted after eight weeks of ETF outflows and a 21-month low.
