Bitcoin price outlook deteriorates after Trump's Iran speech as geopolitical risk and liquidity stress weigh on markets

Bitcoin downside risks have returned to the center of market discussion as traders weigh whether a broader US-Iran conflict could trigger a deeper crypto selloff. The debate intensified after Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone reiterated his view that Bitcoin could revisit the $10,000 level, while separate research linked an extreme downside case to worsening geopolitical stress, tighter liquidity, and a sharper risk-off move across global markets.

McGlone flags risk of a return toward $10,000

McGlone’s latest outlook argues that Bitcoin still carries the risk of reverting to a longer-term “fundamental anchor” near $10,000. His thesis is based on regression analysis and the idea that the large price expansion during 2020 and 2021 was driven by unusually loose monetary conditions. In that framework, the removal of excess liquidity leaves Bitcoin more exposed to a return toward earlier valuation ranges.

The material also highlights a distinction between Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. McGlone said the market is now crowded with millions of digital assets, while stablecoins remain the segment showing the clearest real-world utility. In the current macro environment, Bitcoin is described as competing with gold for capital as investors reassess risk exposure.

Geopolitics and liquidity stress underpin the bear case

Bearish projections were further reinforced by war-related macro research. A report from XWIN Research Japan said President Donald Trump’s April 1 speech on Iran reset market expectations by reducing hopes for near-term de-escalation. The report said the speech accelerated a broader repricing of risk assets, with oil rising sharply, the dollar strengthening, and volatility measures increasing.

In that analysis, Bitcoin is treated not as a defensive asset but as one that remains highly sensitive to liquidity conditions. The report pointed to rising oil prices, tighter dollar liquidity, and widening Treasury market spreads as signs of a more fragile backdrop. It also focused on the structure of CME Bitcoin futures, noting that open interest is concentrated in shorter-dated contracts and therefore vulnerable to liquidation pressure if the market comes under stress.

Downside scenarios cited by XWIN Research

Under its moderate scenario, XWIN Research said Bitcoin could fall from around $70,000 toward $50,000, a decline of roughly 25% to 30%. If exchange-traded fund outflows continue and spot demand remains weak, the report extended the downside toward the $20,000 to $30,000 range. In the most extreme case—linked to a prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait or broader war escalation—the report said Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000.

The report framed this as a macro-driven downside rather than crypto-specific weakness alone, emphasizing higher energy costs, reduced liquidity, and forced unwinds in leveraged products.

Prediction market pricing assigns 5% odds to a $10,000 crash

Prediction market pricing in the material suggests traders are leaning more heavily toward lower target zones than toward a collapse all the way to $10,000. The strongest probability on the board is around $55,000, with a 74% chance (up 17%). The $50,000 level stands at 62%, $45,000 at 49%, and $40,000 at 39%.

Further down the range, confidence drops more sharply: $35,000 at 27%, $30,000 at 17%, $25,000 at 12%, and $20,000 at 9%. At the bottom of the table, the $15,000 level carries a 7% probability, while $10,000 is priced at 5%.

Overall, the figures indicate that while traders assign some chance to a full washout, the market is not treating it as the most likely path. Instead, current positioning suggests greater confidence that Bitcoin could revisit mid-range support zones without necessarily experiencing the deep capitulation described in the most bearish scenarios.