XRP price nears the apex of a descending wedge as bearish momentum shows signs of exhaustion

XRP was trading at $1.3157 on April 3, 2026, down 0.33% on the day, as it compresses near the apex of a descending wedge pattern visible on both the daily and 4H charts since February. The daily Supertrend remains bearish at $1.4894, with price trading below that level, while technical indicators suggest bearish momentum may be nearing exhaustion ahead of a potentially decisive candle close.

Descending wedge at the apex

On the daily chart, two converging trendlines form the descending wedge: a descending upper resistance line and a slightly rising lower support line. Price at $1.3157 is approaching the apex, with the most recent daily low at $1.3033.

The daily MACD histogram is -0.0222, with the MACD line at -0.0287 below the signal line at -0.0065. While the reading remains bearish, the histogram has been contracting, indicating selling pressure is gradually fading.

4H momentum signals early exhaustion

The wedge structure is also intact on the 4H chart. The upper descending trendline aligns with the 4H Supertrend at $1.3586, while the lower rising trendline has provided support on repeated tests since early February.

Critically, the 4H signal line has just crossed marginally into positive territory at 0.0002, while the MACD line at -0.0069 is approaching zero from below. A full bullish MACD crossover has not occurred, but the convergence near zero is presented as an early sign of bearish exhaustion.

Key levels, targets, and invalidation

Bull case: A confirmed daily close above the descending wedge resistance near $1.47 would confirm a breakout. The initial targets cited are $1.4894 (the Supertrend level) and then $1.50. Above that, $1.60 is identified as a key structural zone where the broader descending channel from July 2025 would be meaningfully challenged.

Technical analyst Ali Martinez said on X (formerly Twitter) that XRP “could offer a short-term buying opportunity” within its multi-year ascending triangle structure at current levels, while also pointing to a potential further decline of approximately 30% before a sustained long-term recovery becomes likely.

Bear case: A daily close below $1.27 would break wedge support and expose XRP to $1.14, described as a conservative channel breakdown target. A supply cluster of approximately 19.6 million XRP is concentrated between $1.27 and $1.28, according to Coinglass cost-basis data, making this the most critical demand zone to defend.

Invalidation levels: The bull case is invalidated by a daily close below $1.27. The bear case is invalidated by a daily close above $1.47.

On-chain and derivatives context

U.S. spot XRP ETF monthly inflows turned negative in March 2026 for the first time since the products launched in November 2025, according to SoSoValue data. The article frames this as removing a structural buy-side catalyst that had supported price through Q1.

Open interest across all exchanges is near $2.45 billion, down approximately 73% from the September 2025 peak, as referenced from prior crypto.news coverage.

Funding rates have shifted to a positive 0.008%, suggesting fresh long positions are entering near current levels. However, the six-to-twelve month holder cohort has begun trimming positions since March 27, reducing a layer of structural support as the wedge reaches its apex.

The article notes that prior recovery attempts have stalled below descending resistance and that the pattern remains intact until buyers deliver a decisive daily close above the wedge’s upper trendline. With the 4H signal line at zero and the apex approaching, it says the next directional daily candle could carry outsized weight.