Bitcoin prices rallied to around $65,000 on Friday, up more than 15% since July 1, as sentiment improved amid a relief bounce and potential regulatory developments.
Analysts cited a combination of factors behind the move. A relief bounce followed a string of negative headlines, including Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin liquidation. Investor attention also turned to regulatory developments, with talk of the Crypto Clarity Act and Circle receiving regulatory approval to establish a national trust bank, both viewed as positive signals for the crypto industry.
“As always, I think there are a few reasons why Bitcoin has rallied up to the $65,000 level,” said Brett Sifling, wealth manager for Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management. “First, it seems to be a relief bounce after the string of bad news over the past few weeks has dried up such as Michael Saylor liquidating some of his Bitcoin stash.”
“Second, I’ve seen some chatter about the newest version of the Crypto Clarity Act may come as early as next week. Regulatory clarity could be another reason for the bounce,” Sifling continued.
“Lastly, the Circle news today that it received regulatory approval to establish its own national trust bank was also largely seen as positive for the entire crypto industry,” he noted.
“A combination of some positive news for the crypto industry, along with a relief bounce, seems to be what’s driving the Bitcoin rally.”
Dave Liebowitz, head of growth at Cap, noted that “There are a few reasons” for Bitcoin’s gains. He pointed to the easing of uncertainty around Michael Saylor selling his Bitcoin, referring to a $200 million transaction recently made by the crypto celebrity’s company Strategy, and highlighted ongoing Bitcoin ETF inflows, including single-day inflows of about $221 million to more than $300 million and about $1.347 billion in weekly inflows.
Bitcoin neared $65,000 on July 10, rising to more than $64,600 according to Coinbase data via TradingView. The move came after a rise of more than 15% from July 1, when the price traded below $58,000.
Himanshu Sahay, cofounder and CTO of crypto lender Arch, attributed the rally to a combination of improving market sentiment and renewed risk appetite, rather than a single catalyst. “Bitcoin’s latest move appears to be driven by a combination of improving market sentiment and renewed risk appetite, rather than any single catalyst,” he said via email. He cautioned that the move may be short-term and that sustaining it will depend on macroeconomic conditions and investor confidence in the coming weeks. “For now, this looks more like the market responding to an improving backdrop than a definitive shift in direction.”
Julio Moreno, head of research for CryptoQuant, highlighted market factors, noting that “Both speculative and spot demand are contracting at much less aggressive levels than last month.” He added that July has historically been one of Bitcoin’s more reliably positive months and that “Positive seasonal factors may support prices during July.” Moreno also pointed to the bear-market years of 2018 and 2022, where July rallyed roughly +20% and +17% respectively while the broader trend remained weak.
Tim Enneking, managing partner of Psalion, offered a cautious near-term view. “BTC continues to struggle to put in a bottom,” he said, describing a channel of lower highs and lower lows. He noted that the most recent June 30 low was only slightly below the prior June 25 low. “The move up to almost $65k is not material,” he said, but adding that crossing $65.6k would produce a ‘higher high’ relative to the June 22 level and could be meaningful. For a more convincing move, BTC would need to clear the $67.3k lower high seen on June 15.
