Bitcoin’s four-year cycle broken as four bottoming signals flash; altcoin liquidity and prediction markets reshape cycles

Bitcoin searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” have been trending, and Scott Melker says that is one reason he is buying. In a new interview on Binance’s “Inside the Blockchain 100,” the commentator argued that the typical bear-market playbook may not apply to the current cycle because Bitcoin did not follow the earlier bull-market pattern.

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Broken

Melker said Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126K in early October 2025, but “too early,” driven by ETF flows before the market was ready. He noted that the move did not produce an altcoin season or a blowoff top, and that Bitcoin did not even reach 2x the prior all-time high—levels history suggested would be closer to 3-4x.

“The cycle is largely broken,” Melker said. He questioned the expectation of a prior-style drawdown, asking why investors would see a comparable 85% to 90% downside if the market never delivered the proportional upside that preceded earlier bear markets.

As a reference point, Melker compared the current period to summer 2021, when Bitcoin fell 55% from $65K to $28K before recovering to a new all-time high. He said the current drawdown from $126K is at a similar percentage, suggesting the current phase could be a temporary pause rather than a full bear-market pattern.

Bitcoin Bottom 2026: Four Signals Are Flashing at Once

Melker identified four bottoming indicators he watches and said all four are flashing simultaneously for the first time since 2022.

• Weekly RSI is at historic lows, even below 2022 levels.
• The Fear & Greed Index has reached its lowest reading ever.
• “Bitcoin going to zero” Google searches are at an all-time high.
• Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average, a level Melker said has historically marked the bottom of every major cycle.

Is Altcoin Season Dead for Good?

While Melker argued that the signals point to a Bitcoin bottom, he said that does not automatically mean altcoins will recover. His explanation for the collapse in altcoin liquidity centers on prediction markets.

“I believe prediction markets have very little to do with Bitcoin but have largely destroyed the altcoin cycles,” he said. He added that the liquidity that previously fueled memecoin and altcoin cycles has moved elsewhere and is “not coming back the same way.”

Melker’s Bitcoin Strategy

For Bitcoin specifically, Melker advised a process-focused approach: automate purchases, dollar-cost average, and reduce time spent monitoring price. He said, “I’ve been buying quite a lot in the 60s.”

He also characterized the current market quiet as more than fear, saying it resembles what a bottom looks like before it becomes widely acknowledged.