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Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya says the timeline for quantum computers to crack bitcoin has shortened dramatically, warning that non-state actors could exploit the risk to drain “obvious honeypots” and destabilize markets.
Speaking on the All-In podcast, Palihapitiya said the expected arrival of a quantum chip capable of breaking bitcoin has accelerated from roughly 25 years to “7 years at most.” He urged leaders in the Bitcoin ecosystem to organize defenses and protect bitcoin from what he described as an imminent menace.
Palihapitiya acknowledged that any encryption-based system—including banking and financial institutions—would be vulnerable if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break encryption. However, he argued that crypto and bitcoin would likely be targeted first.
He described a potential strategy for attackers:
“A non-state actor’s incentive will first be to drain the obvious honeypots and then tell everybody that it’s broken, so that then everything goes to sh*t, all the prices go to zero, and then they have all the money, and then they can buy stuff.”
Palihapitiya pointed to recent reports that suggest quantum computers may require less processing power than previously thought to reach “quantum supremacy” over encryption. Despite that, he said the bitcoin community is still debating whether and how to implement measures to protect its encryption system from hypothetical quantum attacks.
He also emphasized that any transition would be complex, including changes that could affect wallet design, transactional flows, and processing nodes.
Palihapitiya said the required changes would be difficult to execute and urged the community to act quickly.
“These are complicated things that need to happen. And I would just tell the crypto community, you have 5 to seven years to get your sh*t in order,” he concluded.
The warning is not universally accepted within the crypto community. Some participants, according to the article, are dismissing the concern and arguing that quantum computing is not a near-term threat for bitcoin holders.
The article also notes that Google’s latest quantum research claims to reduce the resources needed to crack Bitcoin-style cryptography, and it references a “2029 migration deadline,” further intensifying the debate over when bitcoin may need to transition to quantum-resistant approaches.
In brief\n\nBitcoin dropped to about $93,000, falling back below the EMA50 and putting its recent golden cross at risk of invalidation. The global crypto market cap stands at $3.15 trillion, down 2.38% in 24 hours. On Myriad Markets, 82% of the money is betting on Bitcoin pumping to $100K before…
