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The U.S. added an estimated 178,000 jobs in March, rebounding from unexpectedly large job losses in February, according to data released Friday morning. March’s gains were about three times what economists expected, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Why the March jobs report matters Market watchers generally viewed…
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are no longer trading in a self-contained crypto bubble, according to a Federal Reserve research paper released in March. The study argues that, since 2021, major digital assets have started absorbing U.S. macroeconomic news—such as Federal Reserve rate decisions, inflation data, and jobs reports—more like U.S. equities, reshaping a long-running debate about whether crypto is insulated from traditional markets.
The paper examines how cryptocurrencies react to key economic releases including Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and nonfarm payrolls (NFP). Using minute-by-minute trading data spanning 2015 to 2025, the authors identify a clear behavioral break.
Before 2020, the study finds crypto’s reaction to these events was statistically weak. After 2021, volatility and trading activity rose immediately following macro announcements. Prices typically incorporated new information within about 15 to 30 minutes, which the authors describe as comparable to the speed seen in U.S. Treasury markets.
A central result is that when macro surprises point to tighter policy—such as higher-than-expected CPI or stronger-than-expected employment—BTC and ETH tend to fall right away.
The authors characterize this as evidence of crypto’s outsized sensitivity to repricing in the discount rate.
The mechanism described in the study is familiar to equity and rates traders: stronger growth and stickier inflation raise the probability of a more hawkish Fed reaction. Higher expected rates increase discount rates across risk assets, and assets with cash flows further out in time—long-duration exposures—tend to be hit harder.
Within that framework, BTC and ETH are portrayed as particularly exposed because they do not have conventional cash flows such as earnings or dividends. As a result, valuation depends more heavily on investor expectations and financial conditions.
The findings also challenge the “digital gold” narrative in the context of short-horizon macro news. The authors report that BTC and ETH move in close tandem with U.S. stocks during these events.
In their analysis, the time-series correlation between crypto and the S&P 500’s responses averages around 0.88–0.89. Gold and major currencies such as the euro and yen show the opposite tendency, often becoming less sensitive when crypto becomes more sensitive, and vice versa.
Rather than behaving like a safe haven, the paper argues crypto resembles a leveraged version of equity risk: when monetary conditions tighten, crypto reacts in the same direction as stocks, but with larger amplitudes.
The regime change is also reflected in labor-market data. Around 2020, the sign of Bitcoin’s response to employment surprises flips. Strong payrolls, which were once associated with upside for BTC, later become a negative impulse.
The paper links this to a broader “equity-market paradox” seen in tightening cycles: economic news that is “good” for growth can still be “bad” for risk assets if it increases the likelihood of restrictive policy.
To explain the post-2021 shift, the authors point to “institutional demand” and a market microstructure change. They note that 2020–2021 featured high-profile adoption signals from hedge funds and asset managers, and they connect this wave to changes in how information is embedded into prices.
Using an “order flow” framework that measures the price impact of buy and sell pressure, the researchers find that after macro releases, trades carried more informational content than before. This moved prices more forcefully, with the effect especially pronounced on offshore venues such as Binance and OKX, where the post-announcement increase in order-flow price impact becomes statistically meaningful only after 2021.
The paper contrasts this with Coinbase’s earlier pattern. In the pre-2021 period, Coinbase shows net buying sometimes coinciding with price declines, which the authors describe as consistent with contrarian retail positioning and less disciplined execution.
After 2021, the study suggests that this retail-driven signature has faded in importance relative to institutional-style trading around macro catalysts.
For global crypto investors, the authors’ broader message is that Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a macro asset. Practically, the “macro calendar”—including FOMC dates, CPI release times, and U.S. jobs reports—has become important for understanding near-term crypto volatility. The 15–30 minutes surrounding releases are highlighted as a recurring stress window for liquidity and price discovery.
The paper also cautions against simplistic inflation-hedge assumptions. If upside inflation surprises reliably pressure BTC and ETH through the interest-rate channel, crypto may be less of a shield against inflation shocks and more of a participant in the same “risk repricing” dynamics that affect equities.
Overall, the Fed economists’ work frames the post-2021 crypto market as more integrated with U.S. monetary policy, institutional trading behavior, and the broader rhythm of global risk assets. In that environment, the paper argues, crypto markets increasingly listen to and react alongside other major asset classes when Federal Reserve officials signal changes in the policy outlook.
In brief\n\nBitcoin dropped to about $93,000, falling back below the EMA50 and putting its recent golden cross at risk of invalidation. The global crypto market cap stands at $3.15 trillion, down 2.38% in 24 hours. On Myriad Markets, 82% of the money is betting on Bitcoin pumping to $100K before…
