Gulf states weigh expanding oil pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz

Gulf states are reassessing oil and gas pipeline plans as they weigh the risk that Iran could control the Hormuz Strait for an extended period. The aim is to maintain export routes that do not depend on the strategic chokepoint, with Saudi Arabia’s existing infrastructure emerging as a key near-term option.

Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline as a key alternative

The 1,200-kilometer East–West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, built in the 1980s after fears that the Iran–Iraq War could lead to Hormuz being blocked, now serves as a major export route. It transports about 7 million barrels per day to Yanbu on the Red Sea without passing through Hormuz.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said last month that the pipeline is currently the company’s “main transport route.” Saudi Arabia is seeking to increase oil exports via the pipeline rather than relying on shipping routes through a region where Iran could exert pressure.

Options under consideration: expand capacity or build new links

With production at about 10.2 million barrels per day, Saudi Arabia is considering two main paths: further expanding the East–West pipeline’s capacity or building new pipelines.

Regional pipeline projects have previously been shelved due to high costs and implementation complexity. However, Maisoon Kafafy, a senior Middle East programs advisor at the Atlantic Council, said Gulf states’ thinking has shifted from hypothetical scenarios to planning for real-world conditions.

“I clearly sense a shift from hypothetical scenarios to calculations for real-world conditions. All are looking at the same map and reaching the same conclusion,” Kafafy said.

Shift toward corridor networks, but implementation remains difficult

Kafafy said the most sustainable solution is not a single replacement route, but a network of interconnected transport corridors. She added that this approach is also the most challenging to implement.

In the long term, new pipelines—if built—are likely to be integrated into larger trade corridors that move oil and gas as well as other goods.

Potential revival of IMEC

One option mentioned by a Gulf official is reviving the U.S.-backed India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which would link India with the Gulf and then on to Europe. The original IMEC design included a politically sensitive route to Haifa, Israel.

Yossi Abu, CEO of Israel’s NewMed Energy, said: “The pipeline corridors to the Mediterranean will eventually be built, regardless of whether the end port is Haifa or an Egyptian port.”

Cost, security and coordination challenges

Christopher Bush, CEO of Cat Group, a private Lebanese company that helped build Saudi Arabia’s East–West line, said many countries have shown interest in new pipeline projects even before the Iran conflict. He said his firm has received numerous proposals and that multiple ideas are being considered.

However, Bush cautioned that obstacles remain substantial. He estimated that rebuilding Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline today would cost at least $5 billion. He said the original line had to traverse hard basalt rock in the Hijaz range along the Red Sea coast.

More complex alternatives—such as pipelines through Iraq, Jordan, Syria, or Turkey—could cost $15–20 billion. Bush noted that these options have been studied previously, including initial technical studies for routes starting in Iraq.

Security risks are also a major constraint. Bush said Iraq still has many unexploded ordinances and that ISIS and other armed groups remain present. He added that pipelines to Oman’s ports face difficulties due to desert and rugged terrain.

Oman’s ports are not immune to risks from Iran. Recent drone attacks on Salalah forced the port to temporarily shut down.

Beyond security, political obstacles and flow-control issues complicate operations. Bush said a pipeline network requires Gulf states to coordinate more tightly rather than pursuing isolated approaches, adding that for years shipping oil by tanker has been cheaper and safer.

Near-term feasibility: expand existing routes

Observers suggest that expanding Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline and increasing the capacity of the current Abu Dhabi–Fujairah corridor could be the most feasible near-term steps. The rationale is to raise export capacity without relying on new cross-border infrastructure, which is described as costly, complex, and time-consuming.

Saudi Arabia could also consider expanding Red Sea export ports, including a deep-water port under the Neom project.

A senior Gulf energy official said Abu Dhabi “always has a contingency plan to add a second pipeline to Fujairah,” but no concrete decision would be made until the long-term outlook for the Hormuz Strait becomes clearer.

Broader response and international coordination

Kafafy said Gulf states need more time to assess the Hormuz maritime situation, but argued the scale of the current energy crisis means the region cannot continue responding as before. “Discussions have moved well beyond what they were. I think the situation will not revert to pre-conflict conditions,” she said.

In a related development, on Thursday (April 2), Britain hosted a discussion among 35 countries to form a coalition to reopen the Hormuz Strait.