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Bank stocks are expected to remain the most notable sector over the next 6-12 months, supported by steady profit growth, reasonable valuations, and continued market liquidity. Banks account for about 30-40% of total market capitalization and remain the largest sector.
Price-to-book ratios for many banks are around 1.0-1.1x, which is relatively cheap compared with historical averages. While this is not the cheapest phase of the cycle seen in 2022-2023, valuations are generally not expensive.
The investment thesis is described as balanced: some banks with idiosyncratic growth stories could outperform peers and deliver price gains beyond sector averages. For banks to “break out,” the article notes that large capital inflows are needed, as liquidity tends to drive asset prices across risk assets, including bonds, real estate, funds, and gold.
In addition to banks, the securities sector is expected to perform well due to its sensitivity to liquidity. By contrast, regulated sectors such as construction and infrastructure investments have underperformed, attributed to high leverage and rising input costs.
The article also points to firms with high debt levels, noting that profitability faces headwinds from high interest rates and material costs.
On the macro side, credit-to-GDP in Vietnam is cited at about 145%, which the article says leaves less room for loan growth. It adds that capital markets may offer greater growth potential in coming years because many products—such as stocks, bonds, ETFs, and other financial instruments—are not restricted by credit limits.
Over the next five years, the article describes a competitive “race” among banks, securities firms, and fintechs focused on expanding investment product offerings. From a long-term perspective, it suggests prioritizing firms within the capital markets ecosystem that can directly benefit from the development of Vietnam’s financial market.
The article cautions that sectors with cyclical exposure, such as steel and other commodity producers, remain highly sensitive to input price fluctuations, which can make sustainable long-term returns more challenging.
Overall, it expects that 2026 is unlikely to see the same level of market rally as during past booms. It also suggests that fixed-income assets like deposits and bonds may offer more attractive yields than the broader market.
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