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The U.S. added an estimated 178,000 jobs in March, rebounding from unexpectedly large job losses in February, according to data released Friday morning. March’s gains were about three times what economists expected, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Why the March jobs report matters Market watchers generally viewed…
There are two ways to think about Bitcoin right now. If you are a bullish investor, Bitcoin may have bottomed out and could resume its long-term upward trajectory. If you are more cautious, Bitcoin could still face significant losses this year, since prior market downturns have seen Bitcoin fall as much as 74% of its value.
Online prediction markets offer one way to gauge market expectations. On Polymarket, traders can buy event contracts tied to where Bitcoin’s price may land in 2026.
Current Polymarket pricing suggests Bitcoin has nearly the same chance of hitting $40,000 this year as $100,000. Specifically, traders assign a 38% chance of dropping to $40,000 and a 35% chance of regaining $100,000.
Higher price outcomes appear less likely. Polymarket traders give Bitcoin an 18% chance of reaching $120,000 in 2026 and a 14% chance of hitting $130,000. Based on these probabilities, the article cites a midpoint view that Bitcoin has a 16% chance of reaching $125,000 in 2026.
The most likely scenario in the Polymarket view is further downside to $55,000. Traders assign a 76% chance of Bitcoin falling to $55,000. The second most likely scenario is a move back to $80,000.
Interpreting these outcomes, the article suggests Bitcoin may spend much of 2026 trading in a range between $55,000 and $80,000.
For investors expecting a strong rally this year, the prediction-market probabilities point to more downside risk. The article notes that Bitcoin could fall from its current level of $65,000 to $55,000 or lower.
At the same time, the long-term outlook is described as intact for patient buy-and-hold investors. The article points to four boom-and-bust cycles dating back to 2012, where Bitcoin has historically risen to new all-time highs before experiencing sharp drawdowns, followed by the start of a new cycle.
In that context, the article argues that the current weakness may reduce the need to pay a sky-high price near $126,000, framing Bitcoin as “on sale” for long-term investors.
In brief\n\nBitcoin dropped to about $93,000, falling back below the EMA50 and putting its recent golden cross at risk of invalidation. The global crypto market cap stands at $3.15 trillion, down 2.38% in 24 hours. On Myriad Markets, 82% of the money is betting on Bitcoin pumping to $100K before…
