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Most people assume the upcoming SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) of shares on the Nasdaq stock index — where shares will sell for $135 each — is a bet on rockets. Yet rockets may ultimately be the least important reason to invest. The SpaceX IPO could be a bet on a new economy in low Earth orbit. Beyond rockets, Starlink represents the strongest immediate argument for SpaceX’s future, a low Earth orbit satellite internet constellation that delivers high-speed, low-latency broadband. SpaceX launched its first batch of Starlink satellites in 2019 and reached 10,000 last month — two-thirds of all the working satellites in the sky. Amazon Leo, its competitor, has 300 satellites in orbit and plans to launch 3,200, according to Space.com. The company has pivoted from selling access to orbit to selling connectivity — and it intends to go much further. Some think many investors misunderstand what they would be buying in a SpaceX IPO. “People think they’re investing in rockets,” said futurist and entrepreneur Brett Hurt, author of Love Conquers Fear: Humanity, AI, and the Age of Abundance for All, in an interview. “They’re investing in a communications network, the future of data centers and the future of energy.” If Starlink represents the first phase of SpaceX’s evolution, Starship could unlock the second. The fully reusable rocket is designed to carry more than 100 tonnes to low Earth orbit, potentially fundamentally altering what can be built in orbit. “We believe Starship has the potential to define a new era in space,” said Mark Boggett, CEO of space investment firm Seraphim Space, in an email. Starship — currently in testing — could offer roughly ten times the launch capacity at a fraction of today’s costs. If Starship can be launched regularly, some analysts believe launch prices could eventually fall from around $5,000 per kilogram to the low hundreds of dollars per kilogram. “Payload mass and size, historically the primary constraints, could cease to be limiting factors,” said Boggett following Starship’s latest test flight. “This unlocks an entirely new phase of innovation, where deploying truly massive infrastructure in orbit becomes viable.” The largest structures in orbit — such as the International Space Station and AST SpaceMobile’s cell tower arrays — are roughly the size of a football field. Starship could make structures 100 times the size feasible. What those giant structures might actually do remains an open question. Possibilities range from AI data centers and communications platforms to space-based solar power systems. If Starship succeeds in reducing launch costs dramatically, the debate may shift from how to reach orbit to what humanity chooses to build there.
