Standard Chartered Expert: Crypto Winter Has Ended, Expect BTC at $100,000 and ETH at $4,000 by End of 2026

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said the “crypto winter” phase appears to be ending, maintaining his year-end price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum and arguing that recent weakness likely marked the cycle bottom.

Targets maintained as Bitcoin’s slide nears a cycle low

In a note published Friday, Kendrick kept his year-end targets at $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum. He pointed to Bitcoin’s drop to around $59,000 as the most likely cycle bottom.

Kendrick said the cycle low would represent a 53% decline from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000, set on October 6. “Winter is over,” he wrote, describing the shift as a move into “crypto Spring.”

Two drivers behind the selloff—and signs of reversal

Kendrick cited two main factors behind the recent selloff and the conditions that he believes are now reversing it.

1) ETF redemptions and temporary liquidity pressure

First, he pointed to ETF redemptions. Kendrick said total outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $5.72 billion since the second week of May. He also referenced anecdotal evidence that some holders were liquidating positions to raise cash for the SpaceX IPO.

2) Geopolitical expectations affecting rates and macro conditions

Second, Kendrick highlighted geopolitics. He said a G7-related U.S.-Iran peace deal, if confirmed, could help prevent oil prices from rising further. That, in turn, could cool U.S. Treasury yields and reduce macro pressure on crypto.

He noted that Brent crude fell to around $87 a barrel and WTI to $85 after President Trump signaled a likely agreement, before later walking it back on Truth Social and warning Tehran to “get their act together.”

What Kendrick is watching next

To assess whether the bottom holds, Kendrick said he is monitoring two developments: a Strategy bitcoin purchase announcement on Monday and a return to net-positive ETF inflows by Friday.

Market snapshot and correlation signals

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $62,923, up 1.15% on the day. Kendrick cited an 80.4% seven-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, suggesting a shared macro-driven relief rally.

Ethereum outperformed, rising 1.08% to $1,698 as capital rotated into altcoins. Kendrick’s framework also aligns with the view that ETH may lead Bitcoin in the near term.