State budget posts a surplus of about 299.3 trillion VND in Q1 2026

The Ministry of Finance has released state budget revenue and expenditure data for the first quarter of 2026, highlighting steady execution progress alongside signs that revenue growth is slowing, particularly in key domestic sources.

Revenue performance in Q1 2026

In March 2026, state budget revenue was estimated at 228.1 trillion VND. Cumulatively for the first quarter, total revenue reached about 829.4 trillion VND, equivalent to 32.8% of the year’s plan and up 11.4% year-on-year.

Revenue progress was relatively even across central and local budgets, at 32.8% and 33.1% of their respective estimates. Domestic revenue remained the main driver, totaling 740.7 trillion VND, or 33.7% of the estimate, up 12.5% year-on-year.

However, domestic revenue growth has decelerated. The Ministry noted that this period’s growth rate is slower than the 37% increase recorded in the same period last year, suggesting weakening momentum in domestic tax receipts.

External pressures and fiscal support measures

The Ministry cited external factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are affecting global supply chains, raising input costs, and increasing volatility in energy prices. In response, the government applied fiscal measures such as reductions in value-added tax, environmental tax, and certain fees to support businesses and stimulate consumption. The Ministry said these measures also narrowed short-term budget revenue.

Import-export and oil revenue

Revenue from import-export activities reached 77.4 trillion VND, equal to 27.8% of the estimate and up 7.6% compared with 2025. Meanwhile, oil revenue in Q1 was about 11.2 trillion VND, or 26.1% of the estimate, but down 15.8% year-on-year due to global oil price volatility and lower settlement volumes.

Budget surplus and sustainability concerns

In the first three months, revenue collection exceeded expenditure, resulting in a budget surplus of 299.3 trillion VND. The Ministry cautioned that the surplus is not fully sustainable because it relies heavily on domestic revenue, particularly tax receipts.

Looking ahead, tax relief policies intended to support the economy and energy security are expected to continue, which may increase medium-term pressure on the budget balance.

Expenditure execution in Q1 2026

On the spending side, March expenditures were about 219.1 trillion VND. For Q1, total expenditure reached 530.1 trillion VND, equal to 16.8% of estimates and up 23.1% year-on-year.

The expenditure structure continued to prioritize development investment and social welfare programs. Development investment totaled about 116.1 trillion VND, or 10.4% of Parliament-approved estimates. The disbursement rate was about 11.5% of the Prime Minister’s plan, higher than 9.7% in 2025, indicating improved public investment disbursement.

Current expenditures accounted for 20.8% of the estimate, supporting the operation of the state machinery and the implementation of social policies.

Central budget funding and contingency use

By end-Q1, the central budget had issued 80.1 trillion VND of Government bonds, with an average maturity of 10.02 years and an average interest rate of 4.06% per year.

The Ministry stated that the central and local budgets remained balanced in Q1 2026, with budget management aligned to estimates and resources allocated promptly for urgent tasks.

The central budget also used 5.588 trillion VND from contingency reserves to address urgent needs, including 4.754 trillion VND for the Ministry of Public Security and 834 billion VND to support disaster and disease mitigation as required.

In addition, more than 15,500 tons of national reserve rice were allocated to support people during Tet and the early spring period.

Measures to stabilize gasoline prices

In response to energy market volatility and geopolitical conditions, the Prime Minister decided to add 8,000 billion VND to the 2026 budget for the Ministry of Industry and Trade from higher central revenue. The funds are intended to pre-allocate resources for the Price Stabilization Fund for gasoline.

The Finance Ministry assessed that this is a temporary measure aimed at supporting domestic gasoline price stabilization, thereby contributing to macroeconomic stability, inflation control, and living standards.