World Bank lowers its global growth forecast to 2.5% in 2026, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, with inflation seen at 4%. The bank also cuts growth projections for two-thirds of economies worldwide. China’s economy is forecast to grow 4.2% in 2026, down from 5.0% last year and below the 4.4% projected in January. India is seen expanding 6.6%, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing large economy. The Eurozone is expected to grow only 0.8%. For developing and emerging economies, WB reduces 2026 growth by 0.4 percentage point to 3.6%, the weakest post-pandemic. The bank cites energy supply disruptions and a spike in
fuel prices due to the Middle East conflict as weighing on confidence and activity globally. The United States is projected to grow 2.2% in 2026, supported by large-scale tax cuts and AI investment. WB’s chief economist Indermit Gill says Asia bears the heaviest losses, with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Bangladesh among those seeing the largest downgrades. He notes that a sequence of shocks – pandemic, climate change, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tariff wars, and now US-Iran tensions – have eroded global resilience, and that ending conflicts and avoiding new ones is essential. Since the US-Israel attack on Iran on Feb 28, energy markets have been hit by tight supply and higher prices. WB projects Brent crude to average about $94 per barrel in 2026, up 36% from last year and about 50% above early-year estimates. Fertilizer supply disruptions also threaten food security as fertilizer use declines to cut costs. WB says it will immediately mobilize up to $60 billion in aid for the most affected developing countries, potentially rising to $100 billion over the next 15 months. It calls for coordinated policy action to address food insecurity, including emergency food aid mechanisms and humanitarian corridors. Even before the latest Middle East tensions, global food security was already under strain, with an estimated 12% of the world’s population facing severe food shortages in 2025, up from 2019.
