XRP price analysis points to near-term downside and potential 33% drop

A fresh technical outlook suggests XRP may be headed for a steep near-term correction after losing a key support level amid recent volatility. In this view, the token’s struggle to hold the $1.30 support could lead to a potential 33% drop before a broader recovery attempt, according to insights shared by CasiTrades in an X post on April 2.

Key levels and technical shift

The analyst pointed to a break below the $1.31 support as a momentum change, arguing it has opened the door to accelerated downside. XRP is described as having slipped out of a tightening structure, with descending trendlines and bearish wave formations indicating continued selling pressure.

Fibonacci-based projections in the analysis place the next major downside target between $1.05 and $1.09. This range is said to align with the macro 0.786 retracement and the completion of a third sub-wave within the current bearish sequence. The move is characterized as a strong impulsive decline supported by rising downside momentum and weakening support levels.

Expected path: relief rally, then deeper correction

A temporary relief rally is expected after the initial downside leg. The analysis suggests a fourth-wave correction could push XRP toward $1.27. However, it also emphasizes that the broader trend remains bearish, implying any rebound may be short-lived.

For the final leg of the correction, the outlook projects XRP could fall toward $0.87, near the 0.854 retracement level and a historically strong demand zone that may act as a floor once the structure completes.

Momentum indicators and broader context

Momentum indicators cited in the outlook include a weakening RSI below mid-range levels, alongside broken support and sustained downward channel formations. The technical view comes as XRP has struggled since the start of 2026.

According to the article, XRP has dropped nearly 25% year-to-date, reaching lows around $1.16 in early February before recovering briefly to $1.60 in mid-March. Over the same period, the token is described as having lost about $30 billion in value. XRP also remains well below its July 2025 all-time high of around $3.65, down roughly 60% from that peak.

Price snapshot and moving averages

At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.32, down about 0.25% over the last 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, it was down nearly 1.7%.

The article states XRP is trading below key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at $1.42 and the 200-day SMA at $2.06, reflecting sustained bearish pressure and a lack of bullish momentum. It also notes the 14-day RSI at 39.25, described as neutral but leaning toward the oversold side—suggesting further downside could still be possible before a stronger technical bounce becomes likely.