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Short-term volatility is difficult to avoid, according to Lương Duy Phước, Director of Market Research at Kafi. He said the risk of a sharp correction is not high, but near-term volatility pressure remains unavoidable.
Assessing overall market movements, Phước noted that the VN-Index has risen sharply, but the advance has not yet been broad-based. He attributed a major part of the index’s strength to the Vingroup group, while many other stocks are still consolidating, trading in ranges, or oscillating within a base.
In this phase, the key characteristic is strong dispersion rather than a broad-based decline. If a correction happens, Phước said it would likely become more visible in the index—particularly if the large-cap group stalls.
Phước highlighted that the biggest risk comes from excessive concentration of cash flow into a single stock group. When investors focus on the Vingroup group and money flow does not rotate clearly into other sectors, the market becomes more sensitive.
He added that if Vingroup stalls while other groups—such as banks, securities, real estate, or public investment—have not yet caught up to lead, the VN-Index could face short-term downward pressure even if the overall situation across individual stocks is not necessarily deteriorating.
Phước said the market is currently digesting first-quarter earnings results and entering the shareholder meeting season. This creates a “paradox”: the index may move positively, while many investors’ portfolios may not yet reflect gains in line with the index.
On the “Sell in May” viewpoint, Phước said it should not be treated as a strict rule. May is often a period when information thins out after the earnings season and catalysts become less frequent. In the absence of fresh momentum—especially when the index has been driven by a few leading stocks—short-term profit-taking pressure is normal.
He said May will be a test of liquidity resilience. If liquidity remains strong and money flows spread to other sectors, the “Sell in May” risk would not be a concern. Given that market levels are not too high overall except for a few blue chips, he said the effect is unlikely to trigger a deep market drop.
For investors looking for the next wave after Vingroup, analysts advised focusing on stocks with a stable base. A positive sign would be when the VN-Index corrects but individual stocks remain flat, selling liquidity does not surge, and price ranges narrow—suggesting supply is being absorbed.
Beyond liquidity, Phước said investors should monitor policy narratives. If money leaves the “hot” stock groups, it may shift toward sectors tied to growth expectations for the economy, including public investment, construction and materials, banks, securities, or companies benefiting from policy reforms and market upgrading.
Phước’s guidance was that investors do not need to stay completely outside the market, but they should avoid chasing when the index is being pulled strongly by large-cap stocks. The recommended approach is to deploy gradually into stocks with a solid base that do not fall sharply during periods of volatility.
In short, he said investors should not buy “by the index,” but instead select stocks with strong fundamentals, a clear narrative, and the potential to attract the next round of capital.
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