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The latest Bitcoin (BTC) rally is showing signs of losing momentum, and several analysts are warning that a larger correction could be closer than investors may expect.
AlejandroBTC, posting on X, described the recent rebound as a “dead cat bounce,” suggesting the move may be nearing its end. In his most optimistic framing, a break above $82,000 could have marked the top for the cryptocurrency.
Under that scenario, AlejandroBTC estimated Bitcoin could fall by as much as 50%, potentially reaching the $40,000 region. He argued that this level would not only represent another dip, but could be where a more durable base forms—implying a bottom could be built there rather than continuing to spiral lower.
Another analyst, CryptoCon, offered a different approach by looking at the historical duration of bear markets. Citing an average timeline of 391 days, CryptoCon estimated the current bear market is 55% complete. On that basis, he calculated the market as being 216 days into the cycle.
CryptoCon also pointed to drawdown depth so far, saying the lowest drawdown has been around -52%. He described this as roughly 25% higher than the previous cycle’s low, arguing that—if history is a guide—Bitcoin may not yet have reached the typical drawdown levels seen later in past bear markets.
CryptoRover echoed the bearish view, suggesting this week might mark the top for Bitcoin. He cited historical examples in which similar patterns were followed by large declines: a 65% crash after the 2014 pattern, a 64% crash after the 2018 pattern, and a 52% crash after the 2022 pattern.
To support the idea that downside risk could rise as the cycle matures, CryptoRover outlined three catalysts he says could contribute if they align with current timing:
CryptoRover concluded that if stocks correct, crypto—still lagging relative to the sector’s performance—could face increased pressure.
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