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Bitcoin’s price structure is starting to look less like a clean recovery toward $80,000 and more like a battleground between $76,000 and $78,000, where rallies are being tested and dips are being watched.
A technical outlook shared by crypto analyst Guru on X adds a bearish scenario to the uncertainty. The analyst’s revised multi-stage roadmap suggests Bitcoin could first attract late buyers before unwinding into a potential sharp decline before the end of the year.
Guru’s plan begins with a higher-timeframe (HTF) consolidation and redistribution phase, which the analyst says could trap traders on both sides of the market. The prediction then calls for Bitcoin to reverse soon and form a local bottom in the $62,000 to $65,000 range, followed by a rally to $85,000.
In the post, Guru warned that the move to $85,000 could function as an “exit liquidity trap,” writing: “The 85k pump will be the ultimate exit liquidity trap.”
After the anticipated rally to $85,000, Guru expects buying pressure to exhaust and the market to move lower. The forecast targets a broad downside range between $50,000 (higher end) and $30,000 (lower end) before year-end.
Guru also specified what would invalidate the bearish scenario: a weekly close above $98,000 would render the entire outlook void.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,000. Under that reference point, a decline to $50,000 would imply a drop of roughly 35%, while a move to $30,000 would represent an approximate 61% loss from current levels. Conversely, reaching the invalidation level at $98,000 would require a rally of about 27%.
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