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A crypto analyst, Merlijn The Trader, has pointed to a recurring historical pattern in Bitcoin’s market cycles and suggested that the current period could be a key time to consider selling BTC to maximize returns. In his view, Bitcoin may be approaching another major turning point, with a potential downside target near $33,000.
In a post on X, Merlijn The Trader shared a price chart tracing Bitcoin’s movements from 2014 to the present. He said that in prior cycles, BTC topped in May before entering sustained declines.
Across these cycles, the analyst said the timing of the peaks has been consistent, with May acting as a critical turning point before a prolonged move lower. He argued that the current cycle is again following this historical structure.
Based on the recurring pattern, Merlijn The Trader estimated a potential decline of about 60.73% after Bitcoin reaches a potential market top this May. With BTC currently trading above $78,000, he said such a drop would place the price near $33,000.
Separately, crypto expert Ted Pillows outlined two near-term scenarios for Bitcoin while it trades around $78,000. Pillows said the $75,000 level has acted as strong support over the past few weeks, and he believes BTC may be preparing for another major rally.
Pillows said Bitcoin is approaching a critical resistance zone around $78,000 to $80,000, which he described as the area where the next test begins. He argued that if BTC can reclaim and hold this range, the next move could be a jump to fill a CME gap near $86,000.
He also said that once price nears $86,000, a sharp pullback could follow back toward the previous $80,000 range.
For the bearish scenario, Pillows said that if Bitcoin is rejected around the $78,000 to $80,000 resistance zone, it could trigger a larger correction. In that case, he said BTC could fall toward $70,000 before attempting another bounce.
He added that further weakness in that area could lead to a steeper drop to $66,318.
Current reference point: Bitcoin was last reported trading at $78,255.
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