•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO, said bitcoin’s near-term outlook is increasingly driven by global liquidity conditions and the policy response to credit stress, rather than traditional macro or valuation signals. In a note titled “No Trade Zone” dated April 15, Hayes argued that BTC could face weakness during forced deleveraging, but could respond to future monetary expansion.
Hayes framed his view around the role of money supply in determining bitcoin’s price. He asked whether “the quantity or the price of money” matters more for valuing bitcoin, and answered: “I believe the quantity of money determines the price of bitcoin, not its price.”
Within that framework, he expects bitcoin to struggle when credit conditions tighten and deleveraging accelerates, then strengthen when policymakers expand credit. He linked this dynamic to geopolitical developments involving the Strait of Hormuz and to a domestic slowdown he associated with job losses among white-collar workers. In his view, those pressures could affect credit quality, weigh on banks, and delay a sustained crypto rally until authorities provide fresh liquidity to stabilize the financial system.
Hayes’ caution included a specific condition for when bitcoin could rise meaningfully. He wrote: “Bitcoin might bounce a bit after the situation reverts to the pre-war status quo.” However, he added that “the AI agentic deflation bomb still ticks below the surface,” and argued that “until the Fed provides the liquidity needed to plug the black hole in banks’ balance sheets caused by consumer credit defaults, bitcoin will not meaningfully rise.”
He also noted that upside spikes are possible even before the broader stress is resolved, stating: “That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”
Hayes warned that market stress could trigger another sharp selloff prior to any recovery. He described a mechanism in which investors “de-risk their portfolios because of higher volatility and lower prices,” leading them to sell bitcoin “to meet margin calls.”
In his account, bitcoin would rise only after conditions deteriorate enough that expectations of a bailout become widespread. He summarized the dynamic as: “Only when things get bad enough will bitcoin rise, as expectations of a bailout become the consensus.”
Even if liquidity-driven rallies occur, Hayes suggested they may not last under extreme geopolitical escalation. He wrote: “The rally in Bitcoin, inspired by money printing, might be short-lived because the destruction of the Iranian state materially raises the prospect of WW3.”
Overall, Hayes’ note presents a conditional outlook: near-term volatility could remain elevated, while any lasting upside depends on crisis-era liquidity and policy intervention to address bank balance-sheet stress.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
