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Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors have been part of an “institutional exit” this year, but analysis cited by market commentator Jackson argues that larger players may enter a new, more bullish phase next.
In an X post on Tuesday, Jackson predicted more stable BTC price strength going forward, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record regular net outflows. He linked the current pressure to a broader bearish trend change that hit in October 2025.
Jackson said Bitcoin “didn't fail as an asset” and instead “succeeded as an ETF,” arguing that the ETF structure has contributed to the asset’s current behavior.
He noted that Bitcoin is currently moving in line with BlackRock’s iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), which he described as a high-beta tech exposure rather than a “store of value.” Jackson also pointed out that BlackRock manages the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
“From $126K to $63K. Every time IGV sells off, BTC sells off with it. That's not a store of value. That's a high-beta tech position with a different logo,” Jackson wrote.
Jackson argued that IBIT has changed who owns Bitcoin. He contrasted the current cycle with the 2021 bull market, saying institutions have become the “marginal buyer,” while retail investors have increased exposure to tech stocks.
He also referenced gold reaching new all-time highs, saying Bitcoin is currently “getting left behind,” while adding that this could change.
Jackson said he is watching for an end to IGV sell pressure and for renewed expansion of stablecoin supply on exchanges, which he described as an important bullish trigger.
He also said that, across cycles, “weak hands get filtered out,” and that what replaces them tends to be longer-duration capital.
Jackson compared three cycle periods: “2017: retail sold at $20K. 2021: funds sold at $69K. 2025: ETF allocators are selling at $63K.”
Looking ahead, Jackson suggested the next wave of institutional capital would have a different approach, naming sovereign wealth funds, corporate treasuries, and pension capital. He said this type of capital would be less likely to rebalance on quarterly schedules and would not correlate to IGV in the same way, with a longer holding horizon.
“The institutional exit isn't the end of the BTC thesis. It's the purification of it,” Jackson said.
Data cited from UK-based investment company Farside Investors put Monday’s net Bitcoin ETF outflows at just over $200 million.
Separately, BTC/USD dipped under $63,000 on Tuesday, according to TradingView data, marking its lowest levels since 15-month lows reached earlier in February.
As reported by Cointelegraph, some market participants have set new macro bottom targets closer to the $50,000 mark.
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