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The Bitcoin price delivered a volatile week, climbing to a new high above $79,000 before falling to as low as $75,500 on the last day of April. In early May, BTC has started more positively, hovering around the $78,000 level. Despite the rebound, on-chain data cited by an analyst suggests that demand remains too weak to support a full recovery for Bitcoin and, by extension, the broader crypto market.
In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, pseudonymous analyst Darkfost said underlying Bitcoin market demand has stayed weak despite BTC’s price rebound over the past two months. The analyst pointed out that there is no clear evidence of a shift in the prevailing price regime, even though BTC is up by more than 30% from its cycle lows.
Darkfost based the assessment on the Apparent Demand metric, which estimates demand by comparing newly mined BTC with the amount of unmoved coin held for over a year. The analyst said the metric has shown only partial recovery, noting that it improved from roughly -89,000 BTC in early April, alongside the price.
I am excluding the brief positive shift at the end of February, as it was not driven by a genuine increase in demand, but rather by a sharp drop in BTC issuance. This was mainly due to a significant decline in mining activity, particularly linked to severe weather conditions in the United States earlier in the year.
While Darkfost said the apparent demand trend has improved over the past few weeks, the analyst argued that market appetite still needs to strengthen further to create conditions for a sustainable Bitcoin price recovery. The post also emphasized that BTC’s price has historically been linked to the Apparent Demand indicator, suggesting investors should monitor when the metric turns positive.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $78,334, reflecting an over 2% gain in the past 24 hours.
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