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With Bitcoin trading below the $70,000 mark, analysts are increasingly describing the current performance as consistent with a bear market. After several weeks of downward pressure, multiple key metrics are showing signs that the market may still be in a correction phase.
One signal highlighted in recent analysis comes from the Bitcoin Daily Price Analysis with SMA Multiplier, a moving-average-based indicator reported by Darkfost, a data analyst and author at CryptoQuant. The latest data shows Bitcoin has shifted back into the green zone on the chart and is approaching its 4-year SMA, which is currently around the $57,500 level.
Historically, this area has been associated with the final stage of bear markets. According to the chart data referenced in the report, Bitcoin has typically traded around these levels for several months during prior bear market cycles.
Another perspective comes from Joao Wedson, who analyzed the BTC Long-Term Holder Realized Price Bands. Wedson noted that major market bottoms have historically occurred when price reaches the -0.2 standard deviation level of this metric, a point often linked to capitulation behavior and the final opportunity to buy before a new bull market.
However, Wedson said that during the weekend, price action differed from those prior patterns. The chart view described in the article shows that Bitcoin was unable to maintain moves above the +1 standard deviation level, which the analysis interprets as continued and aggressive selling pressure from bears in those regions.
The report also describes the realized price bands as acting as natural support and resistance zones across market cycles. It adds that the likelihood of a structural bottom forming increases as price moves toward extremely negative values. At the same time, the data referenced in the article points to areas with higher risk and the emergence of asymmetry.
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