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Bitcoin’s surge on April 22 to nearly $79,447 has prompted renewed scrutiny from on-chain analysts. Data reviewed by CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán suggests the move was driven primarily by activity in the futures market rather than spot buying.
Open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures expanded by nearly $3 billion on April 22, ahead of the day’s intraday high of $79,447. Analysts often interpret large OI increases as evidence of aggressive derivatives positioning. In this case, the data points to a short squeeze as the mechanism behind the price jump.
A short squeeze typically occurs when rising prices force traders with short positions to close them. Those buybacks add incremental demand, which can push prices higher.
However, analysts noted that this type of rally may not be supported by sustained organic spot demand. Without spot buyers absorbing supply, momentum can fade after the initial squeeze.
On April 22, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a net outflow of $1.845 billion. The timing of these outflows—coinciding with the period when prices peaked—undermines the idea that institutional spot demand powered the rally.
Instead of capital flowing into spot Bitcoin products, it moved out at a notable pace. This divergence between futures-driven price action and spot ETF flows is central to the interpretation of what drove the move.
After Bitcoin reached its peak, open interest began to fall sharply in subsequent sessions. OI declined from $27.56 billion on April 22 to $26.10 billion on April 23, a drop of $1.46 billion. It fell again to $25.26 billion by April 24, shedding an additional $839 million.
By April 25, OI had decreased by around $230 million, and price action was comparatively limited. The largest price declines aligned with the periods of heaviest futures unwinding, reinforcing the view that derivatives positioning played a key role in both the rise and the subsequent pullback.
The combination of spot ETF outflows and futures position closures helped explain why Bitcoin failed to hold above $79,447. With neither spot buying nor derivatives support acting independently, the rally’s underlying buying pressure proved fragile.
While data available through April 25 was described as incomplete, the sequence—futures expansion, short squeeze dynamics, ETF outflows near the peak, followed by OI contraction—was presented as a consistent account of the April 22 move. In this reading, Bitcoin’s rally was primarily a derivatives-driven event rather than a spot-driven breakout.
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