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Has the market really not bottomed yet? Looking at post-halving cycles, the idea has some support. In both 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin tended to bottom around 875 to 917 days after the halving. That timing aligns with the major drawdowns seen in the 2018 cycle (about 73%) and the 2022 cycle (around 64%).
If that historical timing holds, it would suggest the current cycle may still be early in terms of when a full bottom typically forms. From a technical standpoint, the market is only about 750 days into the 2024 halving cycle, which could imply the true bottom has not yet appeared. The key question then becomes whether a deeper correction may still be due before the next major advance.
In May, the thesis gains some additional weight from how the market has been behaving. Bitcoin has already posted close to 15% total upside in March and April. Some traders, however, expect momentum to cool in May, noting that BTC has rarely delivered three straight strong monthly closes in past bear-like phases. Even with a strong Q2 run so far, the market may still be in an “in-between” zone based on post-halving cycle behavior.
Despite the historical pattern, there is a notable divergence from prior post-halving periods. The 2025 leg closed down around -6.3%, which differs from the stronger early post-halving performance seen in the 2017 cycle (a 1300%+ rally) and the 2021 cycle (about a 60% move). This raises a broader question: whether the 2026 cycle will diverge from the typical bear-market structure associated with 2018 and 2022.
Alongside the cycle timing, on-chain data points to a supply squeeze building underneath the surface. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been moving sideways around $80k. That kind of consolidation can favor bulls if supply is being absorbed during the range-bound period.
If the developing supply shock continues, it could set up a “bear trap,” potentially breaking away from earlier post-halving patterns. In that scenario, bearish positioning in May could be challenged, increasing the odds of a bullish shift and raising the possibility that the market bottom may already be in.
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