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Bitcoin has staged a sharp recovery, rising more than 16% over two weeks and reclaiming a key resistance level. The move comes after months of pressure, as both technical signals and broader market developments begin to support a shift in short-term direction.
Market commentary cited by Ali Charts said Bitcoin has broken above a resistance level that has defined price action for nearly six months. The analyst noted the move is significant because the asset is again testing the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).
For the third time since late 2025, BTC has tested the 100-day SMA as resistance:
This time, price action suggests a different outcome, with Bitcoin moving through the level rather than reversing. Earlier attempts at the same area were followed by steep declines, including a roughly 30% drop after rejection in October and a roughly 39% fall after another failed attempt in January.
Broader market developments are also contributing to the current trend. A reported update said Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have returned to profit after the price climbed above its average acquisition level of $75,577, reflecting improved balance sheet positioning for large holders.
Separately, Charles Schwab plans to roll out direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum access for retail clients in the coming weeks. The initiative could broaden access to digital assets for traditional investors, adding another potential source of demand.
Bitcoin is trading near $77,900, with price forming higher lows—often interpreted as steady buyer interest. The gradual climb is described as a shift away from the earlier bearish structure toward a more stable upward trend.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s structure is described as transitioning. After a prolonged decline from around $110,000 to $75,000, the asset entered a sideways range between $65,000 and $75,000. During that period, Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating reduced volatility and a potential accumulation phase.
As Bitcoin exited the range, volatility expanded again. Bollinger Bands are now widening, which is often associated with stronger directional moves. The price is approaching the upper band near the $78,000 zone, where short-term resistance may emerge.
Momentum indicators also point to a change. The oscillator—described as similar to a MACD-style setup—previously showed deep negative readings, reflecting strong selling pressure. It has since reversed, crossing above zero and forming a bullish crossover. The histogram has turned positive and continues to grow, suggesting increasing upward momentum and aligning with early stages of a trend reversal rather than a temporary bounce.
Even with the improvement, resistance remains close. If Bitcoin struggles near the $78,000 to $80,000 range, a pullback toward the mid-band near $75,000 could follow. Stronger support is noted near $70,000, where demand previously appeared during consolidation.
If price holds above current levels and breaks resistance, the next areas to watch are $85,000 and $90,000. These levels correspond to prior structural zones and may attract increased market activity.
Overall, the setup reflects a transition from consolidation into a potential expansion phase. With technical structure and supporting market developments aligning, the market is attempting to establish a new direction.
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