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On-chain data cited by CryptoQuant indicates that its Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has recently dropped deep into bearish territory. In a post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn said the indicator is now at its most bearish level since the 2022 bear-market bottom.
The CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is designed to reflect the current market phase for Bitcoin. It is built from CryptoQuant’s P&L Index, which combines several on-chain measures into a single valuation index.
Specifically, the P&L Index uses:
CryptoQuant says the P&L Index’s relationship with its 365-day moving average is used to signal shifts between bull and bear regimes. Breaks above the 365-day MA are interpreted as moving into a bullish phase, while declines below it can signal a bearish transition.
CryptoQuant reported that the indicator moved into negative territory during the final months of 2025, suggesting the P&L Index crossed below its 365-day MA. After entering this zone, the indicator continued to fall alongside Bitcoin’s negative price action.
Following the most recent decline, the metric reached low levels not seen since the 2022 bear-market bottom that followed the FTX crash. CryptoQuant characterizes this as the P&L Index approaching an extreme point below its 365-day MA, noting that historical market lows have often coincided with similar values.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $68,000, down 4% over the previous seven days. The worsening reading on the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator suggests the market remains in a bearish regime based on CryptoQuant’s on-chain framework.
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