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Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing signs of a fresh bullish rebuild, according to a morning brief from on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. Adler said a rising Bitcoin Positioning Index alongside a sharp increase in futures open interest suggests new risk-taking rather than a short-covering bounce—an important distinction for traders assessing whether the recent recovery has structural support.
In Adler’s framework, the key signal is the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Positioning Index, which has climbed to 4.5, its highest reading in four months. The daily index rose to 40.1. At the same time, Bitcoin futures open interest measured over a 30-day change increased 14.5%, one of the strongest readings in the last 120 days.
Bitcoin Positioning Index | Source: Axel Adler Jr
Adler argued that the combination of these figures points to the market adding fresh exposure rather than simply squeezing out stale bearish bets. He described the change as a notable turn from the setup seen earlier this year.
In February, the SMA-30d bottomed at -10.9 as Bitcoin fell below $63,000. Since then, the indicator has recovered by more than 15 points, moving from what Adler characterized as a damaged positioning structure into one that is improving steadily rather than spiking and fading.
Adler said a bullish price move driven by position unwinds can be violent but short-lived. By contrast, a move supported by rising open interest and improving directional positioning tends to indicate participants are putting on new risk with enough consistency to shift the broader derivatives structure.
In Adler’s view, the market is showing this second scenario now. He cited an OI 30D Change % of +14.5%, described as one of the two strongest readings over the last 120 days. He also noted that 23 of the last 30 days closed with positive open interest, which he characterized as a sustained upward leverage rebuild.
At press time, BTC traded at $78,620.
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