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The Bitcoin community is gradually converging on a shared view of the risks posed by quantum computing, according to Alex Thorn, Research Director at Galaxy Digital, who discussed the topic following conversations held in Las Vegas.
Thorn said that both skeptics and advocates are increasingly aligning on several key positions. The emerging agreement centers on Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin holdings, progress in post-quantum cryptography, and how the broader ecosystem should respond.
A central point of agreement is that Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin should remain untouched. Thorn argued that interfering with those holdings could undermine Bitcoin’s core value proposition related to property rights, a stance he said is widely shared across different parts of the community.
Thorn also suggested that the practical risk may be lower than commonly assumed. He noted that Nakamoto’s coins are distributed across roughly 22,000 addresses, with each address holding 50 BTC. In his view, a “long range attack” would need to crack all of them rather than targeting a single concentrated point.
“a long range attack would have to crack them all,”
Thorn further said that the larger exposure may lie with exchanges and other active entities holding large amounts of Bitcoin. He added that these parties can upgrade to post-quantum addresses when needed, which he said reduces their vulnerability relative to earlier concerns.
He also referenced the “hourglass proposal” as a potential measure if a long-range quantum attack ever appeared imminent.
Thorn cited data indicating that Bitcoin markets have routinely absorbed more than one million BTC in sell pressure. He said that even a sharp drawdown resulting from Satoshi’s coins being cracked would likely be manageable, and that most Bitcoin holders would accept the trade-off to preserve property rights.
The second area of emerging agreement involves post-quantum cryptographic research. Thorn said most of the people he spoke with view the effort as worthwhile, including testing, signature compression, and discussion of how such changes could be implemented in Bitcoin.
At the same time, Thorn highlighted risks associated with moving too quickly. These include diverting developer resources, introducing untested technology into the protocol, and creating consensus gridlock that could stall other upgrades. As a result, he said the timeline and approach matter.
Thorn described a broadly accepted middle ground: developing a post-quantum solution and placing it “on the shelf” for when or if it becomes necessary. He characterized this as “unequivocally a good thing,” based on his conversations.
Thorn concluded that even a one percent chance of quantum computing affecting Bitcoin supports continued work on the issue. He also noted that urgent warnings about the threat have helped drive these discussions forward within the developer community.
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