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A key valuation indicator for bitcoin is at an unprecedented level since March 2023, when BTC traded around $20,000. After several months of correction following its last all-time high, the market is showing an on-chain reading rarely seen during the cycle, prompting questions about bitcoin’s current phase and the state of valuation.
CryptoQuant has urged patience amid the flagship crypto’s decline. In parallel, the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)—which compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization, defined as the value of BTC at the price of its last on-chain movement—has fallen to 1.13.
This is the lowest level since March 2023, a period when bitcoin traded around $20,000.
The MVRV is presented as a standard indicator for assessing whether the market is pricing bitcoin at a premium relative to investors’ average acquisition cost. When the reading is close to 1.0, market capitalization approaches realized capitalization, a condition that has historically aligned with phases of compressed valuation.
Beyond the MVRV level itself, the MVRV Z-score over a two-year window is at historically low levels. Analysts say this configuration is comparable to, or even lower than, those seen at previous major bottom points. Some on-chain observers describe the setup as a “historic capitulation zone,” indicating extreme pressure on holders.
The previous bitcoin cycle did not show marked overvaluation excess before shifting into a bearish phase. This absence of a clear overvaluation buildup changes the usual cycle pattern, where periods of heightened euphoria typically precede deeper corrections. As a result, the current market may be developing in a less typical configuration, making straightforward comparisons more difficult.
With on-chain data pointing to a valuation zone rarely observed since 2023, it remains unclear whether bitcoin will consolidate a structural bottom or whether the current move is only an intermediate phase. The coming weeks are expected to clarify how strongly the signal aligns with actual market dynamics.
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