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Bitcoin is trading near $81,000 while gold is hovering around record highs, leaving the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio at roughly 17x, according to market commentary shared by analyst Sigel on X. Sigel said that if Bitcoin were to regain the 35x BTC/XAU level implied by current readings of the Buffett Indicator, the resulting price target would be $160,000.
Sigel’s analysis centers on the BTC/XAU cross and its relationship to the Buffett Indicator, a measure of the total value of the US stock market relative to GDP. He referenced a chart comparing the BTC/XAU ratio against the Buffett Indicator, showing a widening divergence through 2025 and 2026.
In the comparison, equities rose to about 230% of GDP, while Bitcoin lagged. Sigel argued that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio remains well below historical levels seen during periods when US equities traded at elevated valuations relative to gross domestic product.
Sigel’s $160,000 call follows an earlier projection that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years. He attributed the outlook to demographic trends and the intentions of younger investors to allocate to Bitcoin.
Speaking on CNBC’s Halftime Report, Sigel said the demographic shift could resemble the video game industry: “One Thirty years ago it was kids playing video games. Now Elon Musk plays video games. People don’t quit. They also don’t quit Bitcoin.”
He also pointed to the first central bank buying Bitcoin for reserves as evidence that the broader trend is accelerating.
Sigel said Bitcoin’s recent performance has been influenced by macro factors, noting that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq reached a five-year high. He added that derivatives markets have not yet shown signs of excess.
According to Sigel, options and futures data suggest the move is still a short covering rally, with negative positioning. “To us, it still looks like positioning is negative,” he said. “So we’re feeling pretty constructive.”
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