Bitcoin could surpass the $30 trillion gold market in addressable market — Analysis

Bitcoin’s outlook is improving as geopolitical tensions appear to support demand for the cryptocurrency, according to a Bitwise executive who argued that Bitcoin’s “addressable market” could be larger than gold’s.

Geopolitical shocks lift Bitcoin relative to stocks and gold

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Bitwise, said Bitcoin has tended to perform well during periods of conflict. In an X post on Tuesday, he pointed to the period since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28.

Hougan said that since February 28, bitcoin is up 12%, while the S&P 500 is down 1% and gold has fallen 10%.

He added that the move has surprised some investors because Bitcoin is often treated as a “risk asset,” leading many to expect it to decline during “risk-off” geopolitical shocks. Hougan argued that competing explanations for Bitcoin’s behavior—either that geopolitics is irrelevant or that war-driven money printing automatically boosts Bitcoin—are both incomplete.

“Apolitical alternative” narrative gains traction

Hougan linked Bitcoin’s appeal during geopolitical stress to the idea that it can function as an “apolitical alternative.” He referenced the weaponization of the SWIFT payments network in 2022, when Russia was shut out, and suggested that this could create room for Bitcoin if countries become reluctant to rely on dollars.

He said the current environment—described as involving Iran facing financial sanctions and an oil blockade, alongside crypto toll collection for transit through the Strait of Hormuz—strengthens this trend.

“First, it tells you that bitcoin is likely to rise during future geopolitical conflicts—particularly if they occur in regions trapped between the US and Chinese systems. And second, it tells you that bitcoin's total addressable market is probably a lot bigger than the $38 trillion gold market alone.”

Bitcoin’s addressable market vs. gold

Hougan’s comments framed Bitcoin’s potential market size as exceeding gold’s. He cited gold’s market capitalization at roughly $38 trillion (and also referenced a $30 trillion figure in the broader discussion), arguing Bitcoin’s “addressable market” could surpass gold’s near $40 trillion valuation.

Trader targets $90,000 after historic BTC vs. gold drawdown

Separately, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s relative correction versus gold may be nearing completion. He described the recent BTC-to-gold correction as the heaviest in Bitcoin’s history.

In his post, van de Poppe said that after similar drawdowns, the average return over the following 12 months was 350% to 450% from that point. He translated that into a potential move from $60,000 to $275,000.

For the near term, van de Poppe forecast that within three months Bitcoin could trade around $87,500 to $90,000.

He also argued that the “moral of the story” is to “buy the dip,” describing the period as one in each cycle when investors typically want to increase allocations to the asset.