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Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by a wide margin, a divergence that one Wall Street analyst says may offer clues about where markets are headed next. In a series of posts on X, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone argued that Bitcoin’s surge above $100,000 following the arrival of spot ETFs may be nearing an end.
McGlone said Bitcoin is currently trading around $72,000. He outlined a downside target of $10,000, which would require a decline of more than 86% from current levels.
McGlone linked Bitcoin’s move to the 2024 launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which helped push the price above $100,000. He suggested that the ETF-driven push could be followed by “reversion” back toward lower levels, citing a chart that shows the first “born” crypto reaching an apex in 2025 alongside the US stock market.
McGlone traced Bitcoin’s 2025 high of $126,200 to a specific point in broader market history. He said that around the time Bitcoin reached its peak, the US stock market’s total value relative to gross domestic product reached its highest level since 1928—a ratio commonly used to assess whether equities are expensive. In his view, the overlap between these two developments is connected.
He attributed Bitcoin’s rise to a combination of ETF-driven inflows, political tailwinds tied to US President Donald Trump’s embrace of crypto, and what he called “peak beta”—a period when speculative assets can surge before falling sharply.
McGlone also pointed to performance comparisons between Bitcoin ETFs and broader risk assets. He said the S&P 500, on a risk-adjusted basis, has outperformed Bitcoin ETFs since their debut. From this, he argued that the ETF launch may have functioned more as a late-cycle catalyst than a structural shift that permanently changes Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
He described the market phase as “pump then dump,” where prices spike and then reverse. If that pattern is underway, McGlone suggested Bitcoin could fall alongside other speculative assets while gold continues to draw investors seeking stability.
Chart referenced: TradingView. Featured image referenced: Unsplash.
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