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Bitcoin rose to about $76,500 this week as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, lifting oil prices and drawing some traders toward crypto. The move did not hold. By week’s end, Bitcoin slipped back toward $75,000 after Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz again, renewing concerns about global energy supply and inflation.
The rally above $78,000 triggered a short squeeze, with around $530 million in short positions liquidated as traders rushed to cover. The upward move was followed by a sharp reversal once Iran closed the strait. Within 24 hours, a second wave of liquidations occurred, wiping out about $250 million in crypto positions, mostly long positions.
Traders are watching several technical reference points closely. Resistance is described near the 21-week exponential moving average, just under $79,000. Bitcoin has not broken through that area cleanly; if it fails again, the next support level is expected around $73,000.
The options market is adding uncertainty. There is $7.9 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire, with most open interest concentrated around the $75,000 strike. That level could act as a “magnet” as dealers hedge their positions. The article notes that if Bitcoin remains above $75,000, dealers may need to buy more spot to hedge, while a move below could lead to selling—potentially increasing price swings around expiry.
Even after the bounce, sentiment has not fully flipped. Funding rates in perpetual futures are still negative, indicating that short positioning remains prevalent. The article suggests this raises the possibility of another squeeze if Bitcoin holds above key supports, since shorts could be forced to cover if price moves higher.
Oil prices are highlighted as the main macro driver. If Iran keeps the strait closed and oil continues to rise, inflation concerns could return, influencing expectations for monetary policy and crypto demand. The article also notes that Bitcoin is being treated by some traders as an inflation hedge, while others view it as a risk asset that can be sold when macro conditions tighten—contributing to choppy price action.
The US-Iran ceasefire expires on April 21. Negotiations are ongoing, but no outcome is described. The market is effectively waiting for what happens next: if talks break down and tensions escalate, oil could spike again and Bitcoin’s reaction is expected to be volatile; if a deal is reached and the strait reopens, risk assets could see renewed buying.
The article emphasizes that the $75,000 area is critical because it aligns with the bulk of options open interest and is near the current trading level. A break above could encourage dealer hedging that pushes price higher, while a break below could accelerate selling. With negative funding rates suggesting shorts still have influence, the recent squeeze also underscores how quickly conditions can change. If Bitcoin holds support and geopolitical tensions ease, another upward move is possible; otherwise, $73,000 is presented as the next test.
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