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Bitcoin has pushed toward $82,000 after breaking above $81,000 for the first time in over three months, rising 7% over the past week. However, derivatives indicators suggest traders have not fully embraced the move, raising questions about how long the rally can last.
Bitcoin monthly futures traded at a 1% annualized premium (basis rate) relative to spot markets on Tuesday. That level is well below the neutral threshold, where sellers typically require a 4% to 8% premium to compensate for the cost of capital. The cautious positioning emerged in late January, when Bitcoin was trading around $90,000.
Options positioning also points to muted conviction. The put-call delta skew metric—used to gauge whether traders are pricing in downside risk—moved closer to the neutral zone on Tuesday, though it remained slightly bearish. Under neutral conditions, options trade within a -6% to +6% premium relative to each other; when professional traders fear downside, delta skew moves above 6%.
While whales and market makers do not appear highly concerned about an imminent crash, the data indicate that leveraged bullish demand has not returned with the same strength as spot buying.
Macro and market context may be weighing on expectations. With Brent crude hovering near $110, persistent inflation concerns have influenced trader outlook for economic growth. US inflation expectations neared a 10-year high of 2.5%, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
At the same time, investors have demanded higher returns to hold Eurozone government bonds. Despite these pressures, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index hit an all-time high on Tuesday, suggesting a broader risk-on environment that may have supported Bitcoin’s price action.
Bitcoin’s derivatives caution is mirrored by weaker onchain activity, which can reflect reduced retail participation. Daily network transfer volume fell 54% from three months ago to $4.1 billion. The number of transfers is also nearing its lowest level in over five years.
One factor mentioned in the data is a temporary pause in Strategy’s accumulation ahead of its earnings release. The company, led by Michael Saylor, had maintained an aggressive acquisition pace over the prior four weeks. Analysts expect Strategy to report a quarterly net loss due to mark-to-market Bitcoin accounting, which may have contributed to short-term uncertainty.
Despite softer onchain signals, institutional demand appears to be strengthening. Between Friday and Monday, US-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $1.16 billion in net inflows.
The article argues that the lack of demand for leveraged bullish positions in Bitcoin derivatives could become a tailwind as price rises. If Bitcoin continues higher, shorts may be forced to close positions at a loss, potentially adding momentum to the rally.
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