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Following its April rally, Bitcoin has settled into a tight range between $75,000 and $78,000. Crypto analyst Kabuki says this movement may reflect a familiar phase from previous market cycles that have preceded explosive gains.
In an X post on May 2, Kabuki highlighted a recurring structure seen in past bull cycles, including 2021 and 2025. In those periods, Bitcoin spent a prolonged stretch moving sideways after an initial rally. Kabuki described this phase as a base-formation zone where “strong hands” accumulated positions before the next upward move.
“Bitcoin stuck at $75K-$78K for a reason… This isn't random. This is Bitcoin history repeating.”
Kabuki compared the current setup with earlier cycles:
The article notes that in 2018 Bitcoin consolidated for months before breaking out into a parabolic run that culminated in a then-all-time high at $69,000 in 2021. It also points to a similar pattern in 2022, when a range-bound phase preceded a surge to new highs around $126,100. In this context, the current $75,000–$78,000 range is framed as an accumulation phase where supply is absorbed at relatively stable prices.
Using this cyclical framework, Kabuki projects a long-term target of $400,000 for Bitcoin. The projection is presented as being based on the magnitude of prior expansions following similar base formations.
According to the article, past moves included:
The article also cites a broader market outlook that includes asset maturity, institutional participation reflected in ETF inflows, and wider adoption supported by regulations such as the GENIUS Act and the highly anticipated CLARITY Act.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $78,379, reflecting a 0.43% gain over the last seven days. CoinCodex analysts are cited as saying market sentiment has turned bullish, with the Fear & Greed Index moving into the neutral zone. They expect Bitcoin to sustain its current rally, with projections of $84,219 over the next five days.
BTC trading at $78,440 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com
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