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Bitcoin’s three-month futures basis has ticked up, suggesting increased derivatives activity as the top cryptocurrency continues to trade in a tight range and traders raise leverage despite persistent broader market risks.
Bitcoin has continued to trade between $62,000 and $71,000 since February 6, with no meaningful breakout attempts. Even so, investors have been increasing leverage and positioning for a potential breakout rally.
Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, said the increase in retail activity points to growing speculation and leverage buildup that often comes before volatile moves.
Velo data shows the annualized three-month futures basis on major centralized exchanges—including Binance, OKX and Deribit—widened from approximately 1.5% to 4% since February 13.
The futures basis measures the gap between derivatives and spot prices. A wider gap indicates futures are trading above spot, which can reflect speculative appetite returning and traders paying a premium for long exposure.
Funding rates aggregated across the market also rose after February 13, suggesting long-position speculators have become more dominant. Together, the two indicators point to a market gradually regaining a more risk-on posture after weeks of uncertainty.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said retail users on the platform have been “very resilient” during current market conditions. In a Sunday tweet, he added that investors have been “buying the dip,” with a “vast majority of customers” reporting that their “native unit balances in February” were equal to or greater than their balances in December.
Options markets show a similar direction but with a more cautious tilt. Deribit data indicates the 25 Delta skew—measuring demand for puts versus calls—has waned steadily since February 13, moving from -10 to -4.
While the shift suggests reduced demand for downside protection or bearish bets, it could also reflect growing bullish conviction.
Ruck said the market could see short-term potential for a leverage-driven rally and short squeezes, particularly if broader risk assets remain stable.
He also warned that retail typically enters late and tends to suffer most during unwinds, adding that the current setup may mark a near-term bottom only after an “over-leveraged shakeout” occurs.
Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Seoul-based Tiger Research, said positive sentiment has not yet been supported by sufficient trading volume. He described the resulting environment as high-risk, where a sudden downside could trigger a final mass surrender of interest.
Yoon added that another forced liquidation could extinguish remaining hope and lead to a “total exodus from the market,” characterizing the situation as a critical juncture where the line between a healthy recovery and complete investor apathy is “dangerously thin.”
Bitcoin is down nearly 2.5% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $68,600, according to CoinGecko data.
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