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The market is not even halfway through Q2, yet projections for quarter-end targets are already heating up. After a 20.81% decline in total crypto market cap in Q1—extending Q4’s 23.81% drop—the market recorded nearly $1.5 trillion in outflows over 180 days, the weakest stretch since the Q2 2022 cycle.
In April, conditions have shifted. Total crypto market cap is up nearly 11%, with close to $250 billion in inflows. Nearly 85% of these flows have gone into Bitcoin, leaving the Q2 cycle so far distinctly “BTC-led,” supported by multiple technical indicators.
Bitcoin’s dominance broke above 60%, reinforcing the change in capital preference. The impact has also been visible on the ETH/BTC chart: the ratio declined 16% across the Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 cycle, and Q2 extended that trend with an additional 3.2% decline so far. Overall, the market continues to rotate strength toward Bitcoin, strengthening its leadership over Ethereum in the current cycle.
The shift is not limited to relative performance during risk-on periods. Bitcoin has shown stronger resilience versus Ethereum in risk-off conditions. In Q1, Bitcoin declined 22.2%, compared with ETH’s 29.26% drop. This pattern suggests Bitcoin is attracting capital across changing market regimes.
That raises the central question: if the trend persists, whether Bitcoin could outperform Ethereum throughout Q2 for the first time since 2023.
Bitcoin’s strength against Ethereum in Q2 so far is supported by an on-chain liquidity signal. According to DeFiLlama, the total stablecoin market cap recorded nearly $5 billion in inflows, reaching a new record above $320 billion. Rising stablecoin inflows typically point to two outcomes: capital either remains sidelined in a risk-off posture or rotates into risk assets. In this case, with Bitcoin up 13.5%, the data suggests liquidity has predominantly rotated into BTC.
Off-chain liquidity also appears to be building. The Federal Reserve has injected a total of $12.645 billion this month, with another $5 billion expected to flow in within the next few days. That brings total liquidity injections in April alone to $17.703 billion.
In this context, the article argues that a liquidity-driven environment may be favoring risk assets, with Bitcoin emerging as the primary beneficiary.
With Bitcoin’s outperformance reflected across multiple metrics—dominance breaking above 60%, ETH/BTC extending losses, and CoinGlass data indicating Bitcoin’s resilience in both risk-on and risk-off conditions—the balance of indicators tilts toward BTC. As liquidity continues to favor Bitcoin and translate into technical outperformance, the odds are described as tilting in BTC’s favor for the remainder of Q2.
The scenario could also represent the first ETH/BTC Q2 breakdown since 2023, according to the article’s framing.
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