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Bitcoin miners offloaded a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing their entire sell-off for 2025. The move comes as hashprice hovers around $33/PH/s, while the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by March 31, 2026 stands at 3% (YES).
The miner sell-off is expected to put downward pressure on Bitcoin prices in April. The market-implied odds for Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by June 30, 2026 are 3.4% (YES), up slightly from 3% a week earlier. Odds for September 30 have risen to 9.5% (YES) from 6% a week ago. For December 31, the probability has climbed to 16.5% (YES) from 12%.
The largest increase between September 30 and December 31 suggests traders are pricing in a potential catalyst later in the year.
Despite the increased supply from miners, Bitcoin’s April price sub-markets appear largely unchanged, with most contracts showing 100% (YES) due to their proximity to resolution dates. However, the added supply makes a dip toward $60,000 in April more plausible.
Combined daily face value volume across these markets is $322,918, while actual USDC traded totals $305,899.
At current odds, a YES share for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30 at 3¢ pays $1, implying a 33x return if the market rebounds. With miners still under profitability pressure, the odds remain low without a clear catalyst.
Potential catalysts cited include Federal Reserve policy announcements, major corporate adoption news, regulatory changes, and statements from figures such as Michael Saylor or Jerome Powell, any of which could shift sentiment.
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