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Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader has published a Bitcoin chart analysis highlighting a rare monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) setup that, in past instances, has preceded major bull runs. He argues that Bitcoin is repeating a similar MACD pattern, suggesting a potential bullish turnaround, but he also warns that the market bottom has not yet been reached and expects another significant decline before a move to new all-time highs.
In an X post, Merlijn The Trader urged investors and traders to monitor Bitcoin’s monthly MACD, which is currently emerging on the price chart. While he notes that previous appearances of this setup have led to parabolic surges, he believes the current configuration may not produce an immediate pump. Instead, it could shift momentum and support a more gradual, sustained rally.
The analyst describes Bitcoin as being in a momentum reset phase that has occurred three times in its history, with a major bull run following each instance. In his chart, the cycle is divided by vertical markers at 2015, 2019, 2023, and 2026. These markers correspond to periods where bearish momentum peaked and began to exhaust.
Merlijn The Trader also points to triangle formations across the highlighted cycles. In each case, price made lower highs while support held, eventually leading to a breakout. He says that in the past cycles shown on the chart, breakouts from these symmetrical triangle patterns drove explosive upside moves that carried Bitcoin to new highs.
For example, during the 2023 cycle, Bitcoin fell to below $20,000 while price remained compressed within the triangle pattern. After a breakout, it later surged to above $100,000 in 2025.
According to the analysis, the monthly MACD is central to the historical pattern because the indicator flipped into positive territory before each bull rally. In the prior periods referenced, Bitcoin’s MACD moved from deep red into a lighter “pink” zone around the midpoint of the price bottom. Merlijn The Trader frames this shift as a key signal for an upcoming bull run.
For the current cycle, he argues that Bitcoin has not yet reached its “true market bottom.” He says price action is closely mirroring the patterns from 2015, 2019, and 2023, including the development of a long-term triangle structure where price has been compressing and trending lower for months.
Based on historical behavior cited in the chart, Bitcoin typically forms a complete bottom after the monthly MACD flips pink. Merlijn The Trader states that the indicator has already flipped pink, implying that a final price floor may be approaching.
After the bottoming phase is complete, the analyst expects Bitcoin’s bull run to begin—though he emphasizes it would likely start only after Bitcoin breaks out of the bearish triangle structure. If that scenario plays out, his chart projection points to a potential all-time high rally toward $209,596 by 2027, with an extended move that could reach as high as $283,500.
BTC trading level: $76,292 on the 1D chart (BTCUSDT on TradingView).
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