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Cryptoquant’s on-chain analysis suggests bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold $88,880 before traders can confirm a BTC bottom. The firm highlighted realized price levels tied to UTXO age bands, which can act as resistance if trapped buyers begin selling during recovery attempts.
In the analysis shared on May 7, Cryptoquant said BTC was trading near $80,874 while remaining below several realized price bands associated with underwater holder cohorts. The study mapped UTXO age bands to realized price levels to identify where overhead supply could slow or reverse rebounds.
Cryptoquant described these levels as break-even exit points for different groups of trapped buyers, noting: “Every one of these levels is a break-even exit point for a different wave of trapped buyers.”
UTXO age bands track bitcoin supply based on how long coins have remained unmoved since their last transaction. By separating holders into time-based cohorts, the analysis aimed to show where underwater investors may start selling if BTC approaches their average acquisition costs.
Realized price is the average acquisition cost for holders within each age band. Cryptoquant said a move above $88,880 would place the newest underwater cohort back into profit, which could reduce immediate sell pressure from investors looking to exit near break-even.
The firm also emphasized that the bottom would require not just a brief move through resistance, but sustained acceptance. It stated: “For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear $88.88K and hold – not wick through, not retest and fail.”
According to the report, BTC remained below all three realized price bands highlighted. Cryptoquant framed sustained acceptance above $88,880 as the first data-driven sign that market structure may be shifting away from distribution pressure and toward broader holder profitability.
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