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Bitcoin’s on-chain loss indicators have fallen to levels comparable to those seen during the Luna/UST collapse in 2022, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr., though the current stress is occurring at substantially higher price levels.
Adler said Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss metric has entered deeply negative territory. The 7-day moving average moved into negative readings on Feb. 7, then improved slightly by Feb. 10. Adler reported that the current reading is the second deepest negative level in the metric’s recorded history, surpassed only by June 18, 2022, when the indicator reached a record low during the Luna/UST crash and the liquidation that followed.
The metric remained below a significant negative threshold for five consecutive days, forming what Adler described as a sustained cluster of seller pressure. He said realized losses are outweighing realized profits on coins that have moved, suggesting the market is processing supply from participants selling below their cost basis.
“The depth and duration of the current negative regime point to massive capitulation of participants who bought coins at higher levels,” Adler stated. “The key reversal trigger is the return of Net Realized Profit/Loss above zero, which would signal the market’s transition from loss dominance to profit dominance.”
Adler also cited a companion metric, Bitcoin Realized Loss (7DMA). He said realized losses rose around Feb. 7 and stayed elevated through Feb. 10. Adler characterized this as one of the highest smoothed levels in the metric’s recorded history, comparable to June 2022 readings.
He noted that the 7-day smoothing may understate peak stress in real time. During the 2022 episode, Adler said single-day losses reached approximately three times higher than the weekly-smoothed figure. In the current period, he identified a single-day realized loss on Feb. 5 as the second-largest one-day loss in Bitcoin’s history.
While the loss indicators resemble those from 2022, Adler said a key distinction is the price level at which losses are being realized. In 2022, similar realized-loss levels occurred when bitcoin traded at substantially lower prices. In the current period, Adler said losses are being crystallized at higher price levels after a pullback from recent peaks.
“Back then, Realized Loss at a high weekly level was occurring at a price that was far lower,” Adler stated. “Now, comparable loss volumes are being locked in at a much higher price, which suggests not a systemic crash but rather a flushing out of late bull-cycle entries.”
Adler outlined two indicators to monitor for potential market recovery. First, he said a sustained move of Net Realized Profit/Loss (7DMA) back above zero for multiple weeks would signal a transition from loss dominance to profit dominance. Second, he said a decline of Realized Loss (7DMA) below a lower threshold would indicate that forced selling pressure is subsiding.
Adler cautioned that if price weakness continues, the negative loss regime could extend and deepen, potentially turning a correction into more severe capitulation. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading around $67,000.
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