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Data from multiple market trackers shows that since the escalation of the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict on 28 February 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) has materially outperformed gold. Binance’s research feed said in early May that “Bitcoin is outperforming gold by 36% since the start of the Iran conflict,” referring to the change in the BTC/XAU ratio rather than only absolute price moves.
A mid-March analysis cited by Fortune said that “since the start of the war,” Bitcoin was up about 7% and trading around $71,000, while gold was “nearly unchanged” at about $5,240 an ounce. Korea Economic Daily, summarized by Bloomingbit, reported that Bitcoin rose about 7% in March while gold fell more than 3%, widening the performance gap as the conflict dragged on.
CryptoNews.net’s recap of the period showed a similar pattern with sharper moves. At the onset of the war—when Donald Trump ordered U.S. forces to join Israeli strikes—BTC was around $65,492 and gold near $5,279 an ounce. By March 23, Bitcoin had rallied to $70,700 while gold had slumped to roughly $4,300. That implies BTC up about 8% versus gold down around 18%, driving a rapid rise in the BTC/gold ratio.
Several analysts framed the episode as a stress test for Bitcoin’s role in portfolios. Phemex described the Iran conflict as “the first real-world stress test for Bitcoin as a portfolio-level safe haven,” adding that over the first 16 days BTC outperformed gold by 9 percentage points and even outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
JPMorgan analysts, quoted by RootData and The Block, said that during the war “Bitcoin outperformed gold and silver,” with signs of inflows and increased activity, while precious metals saw significant outflows and position liquidations. They pointed to nearly $11 billion in gold ETF outflows and a full reversal of prior silver ETF inflows, contrasted with net inflows into Bitcoin products.
Capital.com’s breakdown, summarized by the Economic Times, highlighted that BTC initially traded like a high-beta macro asset after the first strikes. It noted BTC fell from about $66,000 to $63,000 as more than $128 billion in crypto market capitalization was erased, while gold jumped. Over the full conflict window, however, Bitcoin recovered and moved higher, supported by ETF dip-buying, short-covering, and renewed interest in the “digital gold” narrative. Gold’s early spike faded as a stronger dollar and rising real yields weighed on the metal.
Across the early months of the Iran war, the reported data suggests that a portfolio long BTC and short gold would have outperformed a classic “own gold in a crisis” stance by roughly a third. The article notes that whether this pattern persists in future geopolitical shocks remains an open question, but it says the episode has provided one of Bitcoin’s strongest empirical arguments yet for its role as a competing macro hedge.
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