Bitcoin price bottom not in yet, crypto founder warns of one final dump

The Bitcoin price and the broader cryptocurrency market gained momentum over the past week, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East appearing to pause temporarily. Bitcoin has held relatively strong momentum since breaking the psychological $70,000 resistance on Tuesday, April 7.

The rebound has prompted renewed debate among crypto participants about whether Bitcoin has formed a structural bottom. A prominent crypto founder said the largest cryptocurrency could still see “one final dump” before the current bear phase ends.

On-chain signal points to potential further downside

In an April 10 post on X, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson pointed to an on-chain pattern suggesting Bitcoin may still have one more move lower. The idea is based on a relationship between the Investor Price and the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price.

Wedson’s framework centers on the claim that BTC tends to move toward a cycle bottom when the Investor Price falls below the LTH Realized Price. He described the Investor Price as a metric reflecting the average cost of economically active coins. When it drops below the LTH Realized Price, it indicates that “fresher capital” has entered at lower prices than what long-term investors previously paid.

Wedson wrote: “This usually happens after distribution phases, when demand weakens, and marginal buyers step back. Long-term holders historically sell less when the price approaches or dips below their cost basis.”

How the metric is interpreted

According to Wedson, the LTH Realized Price appears to be breaking above the Investor Price, which he characterizes as a transition phase. In that phase, weaker hands exit while longer-term holders absorb supply. However, he said the absorption is slower than expected, which can coincide with Bitcoin falling into an intermediate accumulation range.

With the Investor Price below the LTH Realized Price, Wedson argued that market rallies may fade quickly as they encounter selling pressure from investors seeking to exit near breakeven levels. He said this dynamic can limit upside potential and support sideways-to-downward price action until a new demand impulse emerges.

Bottoming vs. mid-cycle resets

Wedson added that the current Bitcoin price structure has historically aligned more with mid-cycle resets than with final bottoms. He described the process as the market “digesting” prior excesses, rebalancing cost bases, and shifting coins toward more patient investors, concluding that the environment favors time-based accumulation over momentum-driven expansion.

Bitcoin price at a glance

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading just above the $73,100 level, reflecting nearly a 2% increase over the past day.