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Bitcoin’s BTC rally stalled at $79.4K on Wednesday, 22 April, as fears of a wave of profit-taking raised the risk of a sizeable price correction.
At the same time, investor interest in Bitcoin has been rising, with the Coinbase Premium (CP) indicating stronger demand. Crypto analyst Darkfost used a volume-weighted version of the metric to reduce noise and place greater emphasis on the largest trading volumes when calculating the CP gap.
Darkfost also framed the interpretation by assuming Binance mainly reflects retail interest, while Coinbase Advanced is more representative of professional and institutional users. Under that approach, the positive volume-weighted premium suggested that recent price gains were supported by steady demand rather than purely speculative activity.
In a prior report, AMBCrypto examined why the $80K round-number resistance has been a key test for buyers. It noted that short-term whales’ realized price, or cost basis, sits in the $76K–$80K region. Combined with the supply held by long-term holders remaining underwater, the analysis pointed to challenges for bulls in sustaining an uptrend.
Joao Wedson also highlighted that Bitcoin has been testing the True Market Mean Price, describing it as a critical resistance level and a key inflection point. Wedson suggested bulls may need time to push decisively past this area.
The market’s positioning has become increasingly bearishly skewed as Bitcoin’s price moved higher. However, historically, negative funding rate extremes have been followed by sustained price gains rather than a trend slump. One explanation cited is that forced short liquidations can be closed via market buy orders, which can lift derivatives prices in a self-reinforcing loop. While this dynamic can resemble a short squeeze, it was noted that a short squeeze alone is not sufficient to establish a sustained uptrend.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr argued that, based on short-term holder cost basis, the market has not yet regained a bullish structure. The metric is used to assess whether price is trading at a premium or discount relative to the short-term holders’ cost basis.
Adler Jr said selling pressure from heavily underwater short-term holders has eased since February, but the market has not transitioned into a bullish structure. The short-term holder cost basis has declined to $83K, while the market price remains a short distance away.
In Adler Jr’s view, this discount reading implies the current move is better interpreted as structural repair under a long-term bearish lens, rather than as a clear shift toward a bullish trend.
The article’s final assessment ties the lack of confidence in the move toward $79.4K to rising Open Interest and a high willingness among traders to short the leading cryptocurrency.
It also emphasized that the $79K level corresponds to the “true market mean price,” and that bulls may face difficulty breaching this resistance area.
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