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Bitcoin posted a modest recovery on Friday, marking the start of May. The move, combined with a technically bullish structure, suggests Bitcoin may have opportunities to perform more strongly over the coming weeks. However, the cryptocurrency still faces the risk of a broader downturn.
According to data from a recent on-chain evaluation, if Bitcoin undergoes another sell-off, it may not form a local floor until it reaches as low as $43,000.
In a post on X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin may not have established a local bottom yet. His view is based on Bitcoin’s MVRV Pricing Bands, which use the ratio between market value and realized value to gauge whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.
In a separate X post, Martinez stated that Bitcoin is forming a structure similar to the one seen in 2022. Under that scenario, he suggested the market could still see one more push higher.
Martinez also cautioned that this bullish path may not last in the near term, as it could be followed by a “final leg down.” If that occurs, the MVRV pricing bands previously identified would likely come into play to help cushion Bitcoin’s decline.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $77,933, up about 2% on the day.

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