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Bitcoin’s rebound from the February 6 low near $60,000 is showing early signs of structural improvement, but a CryptoQuant analyst said the move still resembles a bear market rally rather than a confirmed breakout. In an April 20 video, analyst Maartun argued that although long-term holders are accumulating and strategic capital is entering the market, persistent selling from short-term holders and whales is still limiting upside.
Maartun framed the current setup as a question of “market character” rather than price performance alone. Bitcoin is trading around $75,000—about 24% above the bear market low—but he said the size of the rebound does not by itself confirm a durable trend change.
He pointed to improving underlying conditions over the past month. Over the last 30 days, long-term holder supply increased by about 354,000 BTC, which he described as “structural accumulation.” In his view, this suggests coins are being absorbed and removed from active circulation by participants less sensitive to short-term volatility.
“That’s not a small number. That’s structural accumulation,” Maartun said, adding that long-term holders are not reacting to short-term volatility in the same way as other cohorts.
While the long-term backdrop improved, Maartun said the recent price push also appears to have been supported by a tactical mix of strategic buying and speculative positioning. He highlighted a rapid capital raise by Strategy, which he said brought in about $2.66 billion in 48 hours—$1.16 billion on April 13 and another $1.56 billion on April 14.
In his assessment, such an aggressive capital injection would typically be expected to produce a stronger market response. When that response has not fully materialized, he said it implies that meaningful supply is meeting demand.
Maartun identified two main seller cohorts contributing to the ceiling on price.
Short-term holders: He said roughly 60,000 BTC has moved to exchanges from short-term holders. He emphasized that this transfer is occurring while SOPR remains below 1, meaning those holders are exiting at a loss rather than selling from strength.
“We’ve seen roughly 60,000 BTC move to exchanges from this group,” he said. “And importantly, this is happening while SOPR is below one, which means they’re selling at a loss.”
He described this as behavior more commonly associated with bear market rallies than with clean trend continuation, even if it can be part of a broader rotation where weaker hands sell into bids from stronger buyers.
Whales: Maartun also said wallets holding more than 100 BTC have been increasing exchange inflows, suggesting distribution is picking up again at current levels. This, he said, creates a situation where improving long-term structure coexists with active near-term selling pressure.
In Maartun’s view, the tension between accumulating long-term supply and ongoing distribution is reflected in price action. Bitcoin remains below the short-term holder realized price, which he placed around $83,000. He described this level as a key pivot: in bull markets, price tends to hold above it, while in weaker phases it often acts as resistance.
As of the analysis, Bitcoin had not produced a clean breakout through major overhead levels, leaving the market in what he called a “fairly balanced but not yet bullish picture.”
Maartun’s conclusion was conditional. He said the internal structure is improving—long-term holders are accumulating and strategic demand has appeared—but the rally has not yet “earned the benefit of the doubt.”
If demand continues to absorb supply and Bitcoin moves back above the short-term holder realized price, the improving backdrop could translate into a more durable uptrend. Until then, he characterized the rebound as still lacking confirmation.
At press time, BTC traded at $75,088.
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