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Bitcoin is holding above the broken ascending channel support, but the 200-day moving average (200 MA) continues to limit upward movement as the market looks ahead to major U.S. events.
The daily chart on TradingView shows Bitcoin breaking out of an ascending channel that formed after a bottom around $62,000. After the breakout, the price tested the upper boundary of the channel multiple times and is now starting to treat it as support rather than resistance.
A long upper wick on the latest daily candle suggests buyers are still defending the new support area and pushing price higher when selling pressure increases. However, further upside is currently constrained by a more significant obstacle: the 200 MA.
Bitcoin’s main challenge is the 200-period moving average, a widely watched indicator that often acts as dynamic support or resistance. While price is staying above the broken ascending channel line, it has not yet broken through the 200 MA convincingly.
In the near term, the area around the 200 MA is described as the most important technical level. If the 200 MA is broken, the next signal would be whether price can return to the level and hold during a retest—an outcome that can help distinguish a false breakout from genuine trend continuation.
If the level holds, the next significant resistance is expected to be near the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
If Bitcoin loses the current support around the upper boundary of the channel, the first major support zone is around $79,500. Below that, the next support is near $77,300.
For a deeper correction, attention would shift to the 0.236 Fibonacci level around $75,500, which is described as the strongest structural support on the chart and a critical zone for maintaining the broader bullish structure formed since the April bottom.
Momentum remains supportive, with RSI still above 60, indicating buyers retain momentum despite consolidation below the 200 MA.
Another important technical area is around $80,000. Bitcoin recently broke above $82,000 but failed to hold, pulling price back toward the $80,000 support zone that traders are monitoring closely.
Market analyst Ted Pillows said the $80,000 level is one of the most important short-term zones for Bitcoin. If buyers defend it, the market could attempt another move toward the $84,000–$85,000 region later this month. If that support is lost, the risk of a deeper pullback toward the lower support levels increases.
The article notes that geopolitical and war-related tensions appear to have a more limited impact on Bitcoin’s movement than in previous months, when similar events often triggered sharper declines and panic.
Instead, market attention is shifting toward regulation and macroeconomic data. A key item this week is the Clarity Act, a U.S. crypto bill scheduled for a vote on May 14. Investors are watching whether it will provide more clarity on regulation of digital assets, the stablecoin sector, and the role of institutional participants.
At the same time, Kevin Warsh is set to take office as Federal Reserve chair following Jerome Powell’s term ending on May 15. The transition is keeping investors cautious due to uncertainty around the Fed’s future policy on interest rates and inflation.
This week also includes several major U.S. economic releases that could affect the crypto market through expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
The article highlights that stronger-than-expected inflation or economic data could reduce the likelihood of future rate cuts, which typically weighs on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Weaker data could have the opposite effect and support risk markets.
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