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Bitcoin has climbed back above $80,000, supported by renewed ETF inflows, stronger spot demand, and improved speculative positioning. While the recovery is gaining traction, overhead supply near $86,000 continues to limit near-term momentum and prevents confirmation of a fully established bull trend.
US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have turned firmly positive after months of inconsistent demand and heavy outflows during Q1. The rebound has been steady rather than driven by a single large allocation spike, suggesting gradual accumulation as market conditions improve.
Glassnode said on May 13 that “ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning improve,” while noting that weaker capital flows and overhead supply near $86,000 remain key concerns.
Coinbase Spot Volume Delta has also flipped sharply positive over the past two weeks. The pattern described is repeated buy-side impulses rather than isolated spikes, indicating sustained demand that is absorbing overhead supply.
On Hyperliquid, net BTC positioning has shifted steadily toward the long side alongside the price recovery. Traders are rebuilding directional bullish exposure gradually rather than through a single crowded positioning event.
Net long exposure is now near its strongest level since late 2025. However, increasingly crowded longs could make the market more sensitive to short-term liquidation-driven pullbacks.
The Realized Cap 30-Day Net Position Change has recovered to $2.8 billion per month, which is described as constructive. Still, during comparable inflection points in the 2023–2025 bull market, the metric accelerated from around $2 billion toward $10 billion per month more rapidly.
In the current phase, the reading trails that pace, indicating that while capital inflows are recovering, they have not yet reached the level of conviction seen at earlier breakout moments.
The Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at 25% of market cap during February’s sharp decline before compressing to around 8% after the recovery above $80,000. The reduction shifts sentiment from fear toward uncertainty rather than outright capitulation.
The article notes that if $60,000 holds as the cycle low, the bear market would be the shallowest on record, compared with prior bear cycles that saw deeper extremes before producing durable bottoms.
The cost basis of coins accumulated over the past 30 days is approximately $76,900, forming the most immediate support floor. Overhead, investors who accumulated between November and February hold a cost basis near $86,900.
As those holders approach breakeven, the incentive to distribute into strength increases. That cluster is identified as the most probable near-term resistance zone for the current recovery.
Implied volatility has moved lower, with the front month declining from 39% to 34.6% over the past week. Realized volatility now stands at 30.48%, falling faster than implied.
The spread between implied and realized volatility remains around 6 volatility points, keeping carry conditions supportive for volatility sellers. The market is pricing fewer large moves ahead as spot action stays relatively contained.
Dealer gamma positioning adds another layer of sensitivity around current levels. The largest concentration of negative gamma sits at the $82,000 strike with roughly $2.6 billion in exposure.
A move back into that zone could trigger reactive hedging flows, amplifying price action in either direction.
Bitcoin is entering a dense overhead supply region between $82,000 and $87,000. A sustained hold above it will require stronger spot participation and deeper capital rotation, as overhead supply near $86,000 continues to cap near-term momentum.
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